[BostonCard]

And to BC, I already asked the rhetorical question:  could you imagine this offense without Love?  He is a generational talent.  And one point that doesn't get much run here because we're all too polite in these parts:  there were rumblings that a big factor in our RB's decision NOT to play in the Sun Bowl had to do with the family's displeasure with how the RB was used (or overused, between the tackles).  If true, does that deserve any consideration when it comes to selecting an offensive scheme/approach?

Yes, I can imagine the offense without Love.  It obviously wouldn't be as good, but we would still have one of the best offensive lines in the country.  I would guess that instead of Love's 10+ yards per carry, we would be relying more heavily on Scarlett and his 5.3 ypc, which is comparable to what Toby Gerhart was putting up in 2008 and 2009, or Stepfan Taylor was putting up in 2010 - 2012.  My guess is that if he picked up 15 out of 19 of Love's carries per game (plus the 6 he already is getting), and the rest were given to Speights and Maddox, that Scarlett would have about 700 yards and would be on his way to a 1000+ yard season. We'd rely a bit more heavily on our QB's.  We'd have a less explosive offense but we would probably rely more on ball control.  We obviously wouldn't score as much, but I still think we would mount a decent offense (maybe 50ish yards per game lower, 1 - 2 ypp lower, ~ 1 TD to 10 fewer points a game would be my best guess).  Obviously it is hard to run counterfactuals, but given that four out of our five wins were relatively comfortable, I would guess we would be 4-3 (losing instead of winning against Utah).

That being said, I don't have to imagine an offense without Love because we have Love.  I mean you could also ask the hypothetical of what this offense would be like if we had Love plus Andrew Luck at QB.  Or what would this defense have been like had Solomon Thomas decided to stay a year.  It's pretty simple: you put in better players, and you will have a better team; you take away the best players and you have a worse team.  But, we have the team we have, and as far as the offense is concerned, we have a pretty darned good one.

But I think it is easy to overestimate the impact of one player to the team.  When Gerhart left for the NFL, we wondered what we would do without him.  Turns out the next man up, Stepfan Taylor, wasn't too shabby (it was a bit of a drop-off, but not as much as had been feared).  When Andrew Luck left for the NFL, we wondered what we would do without him.  And, although there were some transition pains, it turns out that Kevin Hogan wasn't too shabby, and again, the drop-off was not as profound as we had feared.  In the latest incarnation, we wondered what would become of our offense when McCaffrey left for the NFL; turns out there really is no drop-off.  Now, you say, what are the chances that a once-in-a-generation talent follows another once-in-a-generation talent, but by my count, Love is the fourth once-in-a-generation talent we've had on offense this generation (Gerhart, Luck, McCaffrey and now Love).  At some point, you have to wonder if it is more than just the unique talent of the players.  Of course, if Love leaves for the NFL, we will wonder how we will replace Love, but I have no doubt that although it is likely there will be a drop-off, it will probably not be as big as we fear.  And who knows, maybe Cameron Scarlett or Trevor Speights (or Connor Weddington) will be the next in a long and distinguished line of H-award runner ups.

BC

[BostonCard]

And to BC, I already asked the rhetorical question:  could you imagine this offense without Love?  He is a generational talent.  And one point that doesn't get much run here because we're all too polite in these parts:  there were rumblings that a big factor in our RB's decision NOT to play in the Sun Bowl had to do with the family's displeasure with how the RB was used (or overused, between the tackles).  If true, does that deserve any consideration when it comes to selecting an offensive scheme/approach?

Yes, I can imagine the offense without Love.  It obviously wouldn't be as good, but we would still have one of the best offensive lines in the country.  I would guess that instead of Love's 10+ yards per carry, we would be relying more heavily on Scarlett and his 5.3 ypc, which is comparable to what Toby Gerhart was putting up in 2008 and 2009, or Stepfan Taylor was putting up in 2010 - 2012.  My guess is that if he picked up 15 out of 19 of Love's carries per game (plus the 6 he already is getting), and the rest were given to Speights and Maddox, that Scarlett would have about 700 yards and would be on his way to a 1000+ yard season. We'd rely a bit more heavily on our QB's.  We'd have a less explosive offense but we would probably rely more on ball control.  We obviously wouldn't score as much, but I still think we would mount a decent offense (maybe 50ish yards per game lower, 1 - 2 ypp lower, ~ 1 TD to 10 fewer points a game would be my best guess).  Obviously it is hard to run counterfactuals, but given that four out of our five wins were relatively comfortable, I would guess we would be 4-3 (losing instead of winning against Utah).

That being said, I don't have to imagine an offense without Love because we have Love.  I mean you could also ask the hypothetical of what this offense would be like if we had Love plus Andrew Luck at QB.  Or what would this defense have been like had Solomon Thomas decided to stay a year.  It's pretty simple: you put in better players, and you will have a better team; you take away the best players and you have a worse team.  But, we have the team we have, and as far as the offense is concerned, we have a pretty darned good one.

But I think it is easy to overestimate the impact of one player to the team.  When Gerhart left for the NFL, we wondered what we would do without him.  Turns out the next man up, Stepfan Taylor, wasn't too shabby (it was a bit of a drop-off, but not as much as had been feared).  When Andrew Luck left for the NFL, we wondered what we would do without him.  And, although there were some transition pains, it turns out that Kevin Hogan wasn't too shabby, and again, the drop-off was not as profound as we had feared.  In the latest incarnation, we wondered what would become of our offense when McCaffrey left for the NFL; turns out there really is no drop-off.  Now, you say, what are the chances that a once-in-a-generation talent follows another once-in-a-generation talent, but by my count, Love is the fourth once-in-a-generation talent we've had on offense this generation (Gerhart, Luck, McCaffrey and now Love).  At some point, you have to wonder if it is more than just the unique talent of the players.  Of course, if Love leaves for the NFL, we will wonder how we will replace Love, but I have no doubt that although it is likely there will be a drop-off, it will probably not be as big as we fear.  And who knows, maybe Cameron Scarlett or Trevor Speights (or Connor Weddington) will be the next in a long and distinguished line of H-award runner ups.

BC