[CTcard]

... One big question- will they be throwing more this year?  Generally when they have thrown more under Shaw (postLuck). that has NOT been a good thing.  Their offense has been best when they run more. I think, however, this may be a very different team so I do expect to see more passing this year. And if I’m right, I hope that means more ball control passing. Which would open it up more for the backs to catch some balls.

I certainly agree with your first point. After I switched over to this board, one of my earlier themes was during the trauma of the 2014 season and early 2015 was where I railed against the refrain that "Stanford needs to open up the offense - Stanford needs to pass more" with the claim that Stanford's biggest problem on offense was that they weren't running the ball enough, and with enough Power - even with Wright as the main back but even more so as McCaffrey emerged. 

For that team, with that particular mix of skills and holes, I remain quite convinced that was true. However, you are quite correct that this is a new team with a new set of players, and it is not so clear that is still the case. On the throw more side is the general benefits of being multiple and balanced along with an apparent quality group of pass catchers. On the run more side is one particular, incomparable talent. But the key question is really what are what meshes with the skill set of the quarterback and the OL. By mid-2014 we'd seen two full seasons of Hogan and his strengths and weaknesses were becoming clear - a gamer, good head, good at finding ways to convert on third down some way some how, but not really suited to carrying the team by throwing 40 times a game. Plus that OL was much better at run blocking. With Costello, I just haven't seen enough yet to make the same evaluation. [Though I do note that outside the WSU debacle, his PER had a strong inverse correlation with number of pass attempts.] And, after really struggling in 2016, the pass blocking was far better in 2017. 

It's also worth noting what the trend has been under Shaw as OC or HC. 
2007  51.3% run plays
2008  63.0% runs      (Gerhart emerges)
2009  63.1% runs 
2010  58.6% runs
2011  55.4% runs      (Shaw HC, Luck a senior)
2012  57.9% runs 
2013  65.3% runs
2014  55.6% runs      (before final 3 game turnaround: 51% runs)
2015  65.7% runs
2016  63.1% runs
2017  56.9% runs

Lower run percentage in 2007 was because they hadn't yet learned to run the ball, in 2011 because we had senior Luck, and in 2014 a mistake. 
Kind of surprising we ran such a low percentage in 2017, given that we had Love and were searching for a QB. 

My own impression is that despite the way he has built the team, when push comes to shove in the midst of a game, Shaw would like to pass near 50% of the time - but he usually has not had a team that could be successful doing that regularly. I don't feel confident I know what we'll see in 2018, but my current guess is about 55% runs.

[CTcard]

... One big question- will they be throwing more this year?  Generally when they have thrown more under Shaw (postLuck). that has NOT been a good thing.  Their offense has been best when they run more. I think, however, this may be a very different team so I do expect to see more passing this year. And if I’m right, I hope that means more ball control passing. Which would open it up more for the backs to catch some balls.

I certainly agree with your first point. After I switched over to this board, one of my earlier themes was during the trauma of the 2014 season and early 2015 was where I railed against the refrain that "Stanford needs to open up the offense - Stanford needs to pass more" with the claim that Stanford's biggest problem on offense was that they weren't running the ball enough, and with enough Power - even with Wright as the main back but even more so as McCaffrey emerged. 

For that team, with that particular mix of skills and holes, I remain quite convinced that was true. However, you are quite correct that this is a new team with a new set of players, and it is not so clear that is still the case. On the throw more side is the general benefits of being multiple and balanced along with an apparent quality group of pass catchers. On the run more side is one particular, incomparable talent. But the key question is really what are what meshes with the skill set of the quarterback and the OL. By mid-2014 we'd seen two full seasons of Hogan and his strengths and weaknesses were becoming clear - a gamer, good head, good at finding ways to convert on third down some way some how, but not really suited to carrying the team by throwing 40 times a game. Plus that OL was much better at run blocking. With Costello, I just haven't seen enough yet to make the same evaluation. [Though I do note that outside the WSU debacle, his PER had a strong inverse correlation with number of pass attempts.] And, after really struggling in 2016, the pass blocking was far better in 2017. 

It's also worth noting what the trend has been under Shaw as OC or HC. 
2007  51.3% run plays
2008  63.0% runs      (Gerhart emerges)
2009  63.1% runs 
2010  58.6% runs
2011  55.4% runs      (Shaw HC, Luck a senior)
2012  57.9% runs 
2013  65.3% runs
2014  55.6% runs      (before final 3 game turnaround: 51% runs)
2015  65.7% runs
2016  63.1% runs
2017  56.9% runs

Lower run percentage in 2007 was because they hadn't yet learned to run the ball, in 2011 because we had senior Luck, and in 2014 a mistake. 
Kind of surprising we ran such a low percentage in 2017, given that we had Love and were searching for a QB. 

My own impression is that despite the way he has built the team, when push comes to shove in the midst of a game, Shaw would like to pass near 50% of the time - but he usually has not had a team that could be successful doing that regularly. I don't feel confident I know what we'll see in 2018, but my current guess is about 55% runs.