09-14-2018, 07:45 PM
(This post was last modified: 09-14-2018, 08:04 PM by BostonCard.)
(09-14-2018, 08:03 AM)washingtonismoney Wrote: Wimbush's main value is as a runner, where he's as good as they get in that respect. Still, I imagine Bry Kelly is gunshy about running Wimbush relentlessly for pretty obvious reasons -- if I had to guess he wants to conserve Wimbush and save his runs for the big games. That might have the effect of making him artificially look worse against weaker opponents.
Using ESPN's total QBR, Winbush is still not rated all that great. He's ranked 84th, with a run EPA of 1.2. he also contributed -4 EPA through sack EPA and that supposedly measures the QB's contribution to the sack (so, a QB who scrambles around and gets sacked instead of throwing it away or who takes to long to find a receiver and thus gets sacked that way would lose points through a sack, while one who scrambles around to avoid a sack and either makes a completion or gets some positive yardage would get positive points.... in theory). Since ESPN's QBR is a black box it is hard to independently assess how good it is at measuring what you think it is measuring. But assuming it is accurately measuring Wimbush, his run EPA through two games is worse than Brownings and ranks under 50.
Here are the relevant QB's via total QBR:
| RK | PLAYER | PASS EPA | RUN EPA | SACK EPA | PEN EPA | TOTAL EPA | ACT PLAYS | RAW QBR | TOTAL QBR |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Herbert, ORE | 12.5 | 2.1 | -0.5 | 0.1 | 14.2 | 60 | 95.3 | 89.1 |
| 2 | K.J. Costello, STAN | 9.5 | 0.0 | -0.6 | 0.5 | 9.5 | 69 | 77.2 | 82.5 |
| 3 | Steven Montez, COLO | 16.3 | 4.1 | -4.8 | -0.1 | 15.5 | 96 | 79.2 | 76.9 |
| 4 | Chase Garbers, CAL | 3.5 | 4.6 | -1.6 | 1.7 | 8.2 | 62 | 75.4 | 76.0 |
| 5 | Conor Blount, ORST | 7.1 | -0.2 | -3.3 | 1.2 | 4.8 | 55 | 71.3 | 70.6 |
| 6 | Manny Wilkins, ASU | 11.1 | -0.9 | -1.4 | 0.6 | 9.5 | 94 | 67.4 | 70.3 |
| 7 | Jake Browning, WASH | 10.9 | 1.3 | -4.6 | -0.4 | 7.3 | 93 | 60.7 | 63.1 |
| 8 | Gardner Minshew, WSU | 9.5 | 1.5 | 0.0 | 0.8 | 11.8 | 129 | 68.4 | 58.3 |
| 9 | Khalil Tate, ARIZ | 3.7 | -0.5 | -1.1 | 2.3 | 4.4 | 106 | 53.5 | 53.2 |
| 10 | JT Daniels, USC | 4.1 | 0.7 | -4.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 86 | 43.1 | 41.5 |
| 11 | Tyler Huntley, UTAH | 8.3 | -2.7 | -4.6 | 0.7 | 1.7 | 105 | 42.5 | 34.4 |
| 12 | Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA | 1.2 | 0.3 | -7.6 | -0.1 | -6.2 | 69 | 13.8 | 20.3 |
(09-14-2018, 07:45 PM)BostonCard Wrote:(09-14-2018, 08:03 AM)washingtonismoney Wrote: Wimbush's main value is as a runner, where he's as good as they get in that respect. Still, I imagine Bry Kelly is gunshy about running Wimbush relentlessly for pretty obvious reasons -- if I had to guess he wants to conserve Wimbush and save his runs for the big games. That might have the effect of making him artificially look worse against weaker opponents.
Using ESPN's total QBR, Winbush is still not rated all that great. He's ranked 84th, with a run EPA of 1.2. he also contributed -4 EPA through sack EPA and that supposedly measures the QB's contribution to the sack (so, a QB who scrambles around and gets sacked instead of throwing it away or who takes to long to find a receiver and thus gets sacked that way would lose points through a sack, while one who scrambles around to avoid a sack and either makes a completion or gets some positive yardage would get positive points.... in theory). Since ESPN's QBR is a black box it is hard to independently assess how good it is at measuring what you think it is measuring. But assuming it is accurately measuring Wimbush, his run EPA through two games is worse than Brownings and ranks under 50.
Here are the relevant QB's via total QBR:
BC
RK PLAYER PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR 1 Justin Herbert, ORE 12.5 2.1 -0.5 0.1 14.2 60 95.3 89.1 2 K.J. Costello, STAN 9.5 0.0 -0.6 0.5 9.5 69 77.2 82.5 3 Steven Montez, COLO 16.3 4.1 -4.8 -0.1 15.5 96 79.2 76.9 4 Chase Garbers, CAL 3.5 4.6 -1.6 1.7 8.2 62 75.4 76.0 5 Conor Blount, ORST 7.1 -0.2 -3.3 1.2 4.8 55 71.3 70.6 6 Manny Wilkins, ASU 11.1 -0.9 -1.4 0.6 9.5 94 67.4 70.3 7 Jake Browning, WASH 10.9 1.3 -4.6 -0.4 7.3 93 60.7 63.1 8 Gardner Minshew, WSU 9.5 1.5 0.0 0.8 11.8 129 68.4 58.3 9 Khalil Tate, ARIZ 3.7 -0.5 -1.1 2.3 4.4 106 53.5 53.2 10 JT Daniels, USC 4.1 0.7 -4.3 1.0 1.6 86 43.1 41.5 11 Tyler Huntley, UTAH 8.3 -2.7 -4.6 0.7 1.7 105 42.5 34.4 12 Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA 1.2 0.3 -7.6 -0.1 -6.2 69 13.8 20.3
Not sure why my table code is failing. Here it is without the table function...
RK PLAYER PASS EPA RUN EPA SACK EPA PEN EPA TOTAL EPA ACT PLAYS RAW QBR TOTAL QBR
1 Justin Herbert, ORE 12.5 2.1 -0.5 0.1 14.2 60 95.3 89.1
2 K.J. Costello, STAN 9.5 0.0 -0.6 0.5 9.5 69 77.2 82.5
3 Steven Montez, COLO 16.3 4.1 -4.8 -0.1 15.5 96 79.2 76.9
4 Chase Garbers, CAL 3.5 4.6 -1.6 1.7 8.2 62 75.4 76.0
5 Conor Blount, ORST 7.1 -0.2 -3.3 1.2 4.8 55 71.3 70.6
6 Manny Wilkins, ASU 11.1 -0.9 -1.4 0.6 9.5 94 67.4 70.3
7 Jake Browning, WASH 10.9 1.3 -4.6 -0.4 7.3 93 60.7 63.1
8 Gardner Minshew, WSU 9.5 1.5 0.0 0.8 11.8 129 68.4 58.3
9 Khalil Tate, ARIZ 3.7 -0.5 -1.1 2.3 4.4 106 53.5 53.2
10 JT Daniels, USC 4.1 0.7 -4.3 1.0 1.6 86 43.1 41.5
11 Tyler Huntley, UTAH 8.3 -2.7 -4.6 0.7 1.7 105 42.5 34.4
12 Dorian Thompson-Robinson, UCLA 1.2 0.3 -7.6 -0.1 -6.2 69 13.8 20.3
With a total QBR of 50.2 Wimbush would rank 10th in the Pac-12, just ahead of JT Daniels.