I will preface this by saying, I did think Washington State posed a tough matchup. (I said Stanford would win 21-20 in the prediction game, but due to the 10 point penalty for picking the opponent, that's my way of saying I thought Stanford would lose by less than 10). If there's one type of team that's giving us fits this year, it's a quarterback who's playing like one of the best in the country and/or a passing game running at high gear -- Herbert, Book, Minshew (and Utah has now ripped 4 games in a row scoring 40+ points). But the good news is we shouldn't face anything like Herbert, Book or Minshew again this regular season.
I haven't kept up-to-date on whether Love and Herbig are healthy this Saturday (and who can believe what we hear?), but assuming they're ready to go, this is a game I'd give Stanford the slight edge to. On a neutral field, with standard weather, in terms of matchups, it's the kind of game I think Stanford would have a better than a 50/50 shot to win.
Aside from the question of injuries, the big unknown is the weather. Showers are forecast in Seattle til and through the game, with thunderstorms the day before. The conventional wisdom for rain was that it helps the worse team (by making things more random), it helps the slower team (neutralizing some of the fast team's speed), and it helps the run-first team (because it's harder to catch and throw a slippery ball). But greater than these is the question -- how well does the team play in the rain? and I don't think I know yet if Stanford is a good rain team or not. I was of course a big fan of double Rose Bowl winner Kevin Hogan, but despite him being a Virginia native, I thought he generally did not throw good games in the rain. (He *won* a game against Wazoo with his feet, but not with his arm).
So I don't know yet -- how will we play in the rain? But I do think, assuming we can protect KJ and he can get the ball out of there, I would think strong, tall, rangy receivers hauling jump balls would do pretty well in the rain. KJ just seems like he'd do well in the rain -- my recollection is that his fingers seem longer than Hogan's, and he seems to have better zip and a tighter spiral, so I hope he can still sling it in a storm. On the flipside, I think KJ has had some poor ball security, sometimes he leaves the ball dangling out there instead of tucking it, and that could be disastrous in a mud bowl. So this week would be a good time to fix that.
Aside from all that, there's another element to the rain that I think is *definitely* a plus for Stanford -- it will reduce the crowd size and the crowd noise. Even if an equal number of fans show up, and if they are equally loud, the rain will muffle the volume. And why scream when it's not going to bounce like it would in a more packed, dryer place? But with a HIGH temperature of 55, at night, in the rain, I am hopeful the game -- and the stadium -- will not be like 2016.
I haven't kept up-to-date on whether Love and Herbig are healthy this Saturday (and who can believe what we hear?), but assuming they're ready to go, this is a game I'd give Stanford the slight edge to. On a neutral field, with standard weather, in terms of matchups, it's the kind of game I think Stanford would have a better than a 50/50 shot to win.
Aside from the question of injuries, the big unknown is the weather. Showers are forecast in Seattle til and through the game, with thunderstorms the day before. The conventional wisdom for rain was that it helps the worse team (by making things more random), it helps the slower team (neutralizing some of the fast team's speed), and it helps the run-first team (because it's harder to catch and throw a slippery ball). But greater than these is the question -- how well does the team play in the rain? and I don't think I know yet if Stanford is a good rain team or not. I was of course a big fan of double Rose Bowl winner Kevin Hogan, but despite him being a Virginia native, I thought he generally did not throw good games in the rain. (He *won* a game against Wazoo with his feet, but not with his arm).
So I don't know yet -- how will we play in the rain? But I do think, assuming we can protect KJ and he can get the ball out of there, I would think strong, tall, rangy receivers hauling jump balls would do pretty well in the rain. KJ just seems like he'd do well in the rain -- my recollection is that his fingers seem longer than Hogan's, and he seems to have better zip and a tighter spiral, so I hope he can still sling it in a storm. On the flipside, I think KJ has had some poor ball security, sometimes he leaves the ball dangling out there instead of tucking it, and that could be disastrous in a mud bowl. So this week would be a good time to fix that.
Aside from all that, there's another element to the rain that I think is *definitely* a plus for Stanford -- it will reduce the crowd size and the crowd noise. Even if an equal number of fans show up, and if they are equally loud, the rain will muffle the volume. And why scream when it's not going to bounce like it would in a more packed, dryer place? But with a HIGH temperature of 55, at night, in the rain, I am hopeful the game -- and the stadium -- will not be like 2016.