02-12-2019, 05:25 PM
I appreciate your thoughts. Looking at the data, it does appear that there is some evidence that mid-range shots may be a little less susceptible to the effect of the opponents defense than either three pointers or shots from within 4 feet, which might suggest that mid-range shots may be marginally more consistent game-to-game than other types of shots. My instinct, however, is that the variability due to chance if the underlying field goal percentage is ~40% is probably greater than the variability due to opponent defense. Generally, if I were a coach of a player who had a really good mid-range jumper, I'd probably work on her range to be a really good three-point shooter than to work on being a phenomenal mid-range shooter.
Or, put another way, even in the best of circumstances where the defense leaves the shooter wide open (no defender within 6 feet) on a 15 foot jump shot, they are only worth as much as a tightly guarded (defender within 2 feet) three pointer (note that in the dataset above, there is no distinction between a three pointer with a defender within 2 feet as one between 2-4 feet).
BC
Or, put another way, even in the best of circumstances where the defense leaves the shooter wide open (no defender within 6 feet) on a 15 foot jump shot, they are only worth as much as a tightly guarded (defender within 2 feet) three pointer (note that in the dataset above, there is no distinction between a three pointer with a defender within 2 feet as one between 2-4 feet).
BC