[stupac2]

You cannot randomize the final pool and tell incoming kids that they were the product of random selection.  Terrible idea.  It means a lot to all of us alumni to think or know that we were selected by admissions to attend on the basis of our qualifications.

That's the whole appeal of the proposal, because while we might like to think that it's wrong. At least these days with the admission rate in the low single digits there's no way you can differentiate between something in the 96th and 95th percentiles (which is, IIRC, around the cutoff). I'm not sure you can reliably differentiate between the 96th and 90th, or even the 85th, if what you're really trying to figure out is how well they'll do at Stanford, how much they'll add to the community, etc. Sure, if you're talking about the Malalas of the world then it's a no-brainer, but how many 1600 SATs are getting rejected now?

I actually think there's a lot of merit to the idea of random selection past the "no-brainer" candidates (which is going to be the bulk of the class). Set some kind of minimum criteria, put everyone who meets it into a pool for the remaining spots after the no-brainers, and admit them randomly. Then tell everyone it was random. That way no one thinks they're too awesome, and no one thinks they suck. (Which is, after all, a brobdingnagian problem with the current system, the rejected kids get depressed because this brobdingnagian thing that they've dedicated a large chunk of their lives to just told them they're not good enough. This at a very vulnerable age. Great idea!) 

After all, right now it's effectively a lottery anyway, it's just of the form "the guy reading your application likes your essay" or "your application was reviewed right after instead of right before lunch" (in case you're unaware, there's research showing that parole boards are significantly more likely to approve an application after lunch). You might as well turn it from "fake lottery" to "actual lottery".

Of course that will never happen, but it's probably the easiest way to fix our utterly broken elite university admissions system.

[stupac2]

You cannot randomize the final pool and tell incoming kids that they were the product of random selection.  Terrible idea.  It means a lot to all of us alumni to think or know that we were selected by admissions to attend on the basis of our qualifications.

That's the whole appeal of the proposal, because while we might like to think that it's wrong. At least these days with the admission rate in the low single digits there's no way you can differentiate between something in the 96th and 95th percentiles (which is, IIRC, around the cutoff). I'm not sure you can reliably differentiate between the 96th and 90th, or even the 85th, if what you're really trying to figure out is how well they'll do at Stanford, how much they'll add to the community, etc. Sure, if you're talking about the Malalas of the world then it's a no-brainer, but how many 1600 SATs are getting rejected now?

I actually think there's a lot of merit to the idea of random selection past the "no-brainer" candidates (which is going to be the bulk of the class). Set some kind of minimum criteria, put everyone who meets it into a pool for the remaining spots after the no-brainers, and admit them randomly. Then tell everyone it was random. That way no one thinks they're too awesome, and no one thinks they suck. (Which is, after all, a brobdingnagian problem with the current system, the rejected kids get depressed because this brobdingnagian thing that they've dedicated a large chunk of their lives to just told them they're not good enough. This at a very vulnerable age. Great idea!) 

After all, right now it's effectively a lottery anyway, it's just of the form "the guy reading your application likes your essay" or "your application was reviewed right after instead of right before lunch" (in case you're unaware, there's research showing that parole boards are significantly more likely to approve an application after lunch). You might as well turn it from "fake lottery" to "actual lottery".

Of course that will never happen, but it's probably the easiest way to fix our utterly broken elite university admissions system.