[FarmBoy]

FWLIW, I think there is a H.UGE difference between a number 3 and a fringe lottery pick. a #3 pick you expect to start for your team right away and be a consistent all star. A mid first round is expected to have a solid NBA career and be a contributor.

I wonder about that.  Nash (15th overall), Karl Malone (13), John Stockton (16), Kobe Bryant (13), Nate Archibald (19),

Are you trying to make a serious case that it's better to have the number 13-19 pick in the draft than the number 1-3 pick? I'd like to see you pitch that to an NBA GM and see how he responds.

No.  That's a rather nonsensical position.  Obviously a top three position, where you can get players like LaRue Martin and Chris Washburn and Joe Smith are preferable to the #13-#19 pick, if only for the odds.  All I was saying is that a high draft position doesn't guarantee a quality player.  Since 1950, only 44 of the first round picks became All-Stars.  And a mid-level first round draft position doesn't guarantee an average player. 

For extra credit trivia, name the three NBA all-stars in the draft era who weren't drafted...at all.

Okay, your post seemed to be questioning my thesis that there are vastly different expectations for a top 3 pick vs. a mid-round pick. OF was saying he doesn't think KZ will be as good as Jaylen Brown, as though that were a criticism of KZ or his draft potential. If KZ goes mid first round, no one is going to expect him to become Karl Malone or Kobe Bryant. They hope he will, but he won't be considered a bust if he never becomes an all star.

[FarmBoy]

FWLIW, I think there is a H.UGE difference between a number 3 and a fringe lottery pick. a #3 pick you expect to start for your team right away and be a consistent all star. A mid first round is expected to have a solid NBA career and be a contributor.

I wonder about that.  Nash (15th overall), Karl Malone (13), John Stockton (16), Kobe Bryant (13), Nate Archibald (19),

Are you trying to make a serious case that it's better to have the number 13-19 pick in the draft than the number 1-3 pick? I'd like to see you pitch that to an NBA GM and see how he responds.

No.  That's a rather nonsensical position.  Obviously a top three position, where you can get players like LaRue Martin and Chris Washburn and Joe Smith are preferable to the #13-#19 pick, if only for the odds.  All I was saying is that a high draft position doesn't guarantee a quality player.  Since 1950, only 44 of the first round picks became All-Stars.  And a mid-level first round draft position doesn't guarantee an average player. 

For extra credit trivia, name the three NBA all-stars in the draft era who weren't drafted...at all.

Okay, your post seemed to be questioning my thesis that there are vastly different expectations for a top 3 pick vs. a mid-round pick. OF was saying he doesn't think KZ will be as good as Jaylen Brown, as though that were a criticism of KZ or his draft potential. If KZ goes mid first round, no one is going to expect him to become Karl Malone or Kobe Bryant. They hope he will, but he won't be considered a bust if he never becomes an all star.