[CTcard]

This is one of those things that really aggravates me to no end, so I think I'll rant a bit.

Baseball America and D1Baseball released their latest projected brackets today in which Stanford received the #9 and #10 seeds, respectively. Both sites have the Card on the outside looking in for a top 8 seed despite both of them ranking Stanford #3 in their top 25 polls.

So, these folks themselves clearly don't believe this is proper. You cannot think Stanford is the third best team and think they shouldn't be a top 8 seed. Of course the bracket projection is presumably what they think the NCAA will do rather than should, but neither of these publications even comments on the discrepancy. 

As has been discussed previously, the reason for the discrepancy lies in our RPI. As of this morning, our RPI ranks #14, essentially third in a three-way tie for 12th place with Texas A&M and UC Santa Barbara.

At this point, I don't think anybody really believes that the RPI is a serious power ranking. It's clear that nobody doing human rankings does, with Stanford as a primo example being generally ranked about third despite the #14 RPI. It's clear that even the NCAA doesn't as they just replaced the RPI for basketball.

Nevertheless, these projections have each chosen their top 8 seeds from the top 9 in RPI.

The question that matters is if these guys actually know anything about what the NCAA committee will do. Some years back there was strong evidence that the baseball committee was starting to come to grips that the RPI is a terrible measure - and in particular structurally biased against top teams in the west. Then, the committee started to drift back towards following the RPI. Just lately, I haven't followed so closely - so I don't know. Of course my fear is that they are correct.

Looking ahead, we have seven games remaining including our final two conference series, home versus OSU and away at ASU, sandwiched around a midweek home game against Ryan Garko's Pacific club.

Both OSU and ASU have done some damage to our and the conference's prospects lately. OSU managed to selectively crumble vs non-conference opponents lately, going 1-8 before a narrow win over Portland last Tuesday. ASU dropped a weekend series to Nebraska.
Nonetheless, ASU and OSU have good enough records that they'll still be a help on the RPI front - not so much Pacific.

As a result, repeating as outright conference champions may be a task a bit too tall for Stanford, but claiming a share of the title certainly isn't out of the question.

As far as what it will take to claim a top 8 seed, my best guess is that a 6-1 record over the next two weeks should guarantee it while 4-3 or worse probably precludes the possibility. I think 5-2 is where things get interesting, and the finishes of other teams may come into play. For those inclined to scoreboard watch, our closest competitors for the final #8 seed appear to be Texas Tech, East Carolina, Louisville, Georgia, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State - Oregon State as well but we'll have a say in how the Beavers finish.

Barring a poor finish, it would seem Stanford making a top 8 seed overall purely comes down to whether the committee sticks closely to RPI ratings or takes into account everything else. That comes down to the idiosyncrasies of individual committee members, so its rather hard to predict. I would think that the two most helpful things Stanford can do is win both weekend series and manage at least a co-conference championship.

Here's a rundown of key features of the top 10 or so teams, in order of BA rankings.
Find the outlier.

1. UCLA         41-8,   19-5 in Pac 12/tied first, 12-0 in weekend series - BA #2 seed, D1 #1 seed
2. Vanderbilt  41-10,  20-7 in SEC/first,            10-2 in weekend series - BA #1 seed, D1 #2 seed
3. Stanford    37-9,   19-5 in Pac 12/tied first,  11-1 in weekend series - BA #9 seed, D1 #10 seed
4. Arkansas   39-13,  20-8 in SEC/second,       11-2 in weekend series - BA #3 seed, D1 #3 seed
5. Miss. St.    42-10,  18-9 in SEC/fourth,        10-2 in weekend series - BA #4 seed, D1 #4 seed
6. Georgia     39-14,  19-9 in SEC/third,          11-2 in weekend series - BA #5 seed, D1 #7 seed
7. E Carolina  39-12,  18-3 in AAC/first,           11-1 in weekend series - BA #6 seed, D1 #9 seed
8. Ga Tech    35-15,  17-10 in ACC/second,     11-1 in weekend series - BA #10 seed, D1 #6 seed
9. Texas Tch 34-14,  14-7 in Big12/second,       9-2 in weekend series - BA #8 seed, D1 #8 seed
10. Louisville 40-12,  19-8 in ACC/first,              9-4 in weekend series - BA #7 seed, D1 #5 seed

[CTcard]

This is one of those things that really aggravates me to no end, so I think I'll rant a bit.

Baseball America and D1Baseball released their latest projected brackets today in which Stanford received the #9 and #10 seeds, respectively. Both sites have the Card on the outside looking in for a top 8 seed despite both of them ranking Stanford #3 in their top 25 polls.

So, these folks themselves clearly don't believe this is proper. You cannot think Stanford is the third best team and think they shouldn't be a top 8 seed. Of course the bracket projection is presumably what they think the NCAA will do rather than should, but neither of these publications even comments on the discrepancy. 

As has been discussed previously, the reason for the discrepancy lies in our RPI. As of this morning, our RPI ranks #14, essentially third in a three-way tie for 12th place with Texas A&M and UC Santa Barbara.

At this point, I don't think anybody really believes that the RPI is a serious power ranking. It's clear that nobody doing human rankings does, with Stanford as a primo example being generally ranked about third despite the #14 RPI. It's clear that even the NCAA doesn't as they just replaced the RPI for basketball.

Nevertheless, these projections have each chosen their top 8 seeds from the top 9 in RPI.

The question that matters is if these guys actually know anything about what the NCAA committee will do. Some years back there was strong evidence that the baseball committee was starting to come to grips that the RPI is a terrible measure - and in particular structurally biased against top teams in the west. Then, the committee started to drift back towards following the RPI. Just lately, I haven't followed so closely - so I don't know. Of course my fear is that they are correct.

Looking ahead, we have seven games remaining including our final two conference series, home versus OSU and away at ASU, sandwiched around a midweek home game against Ryan Garko's Pacific club.

Both OSU and ASU have done some damage to our and the conference's prospects lately. OSU managed to selectively crumble vs non-conference opponents lately, going 1-8 before a narrow win over Portland last Tuesday. ASU dropped a weekend series to Nebraska.
Nonetheless, ASU and OSU have good enough records that they'll still be a help on the RPI front - not so much Pacific.

As a result, repeating as outright conference champions may be a task a bit too tall for Stanford, but claiming a share of the title certainly isn't out of the question.

As far as what it will take to claim a top 8 seed, my best guess is that a 6-1 record over the next two weeks should guarantee it while 4-3 or worse probably precludes the possibility. I think 5-2 is where things get interesting, and the finishes of other teams may come into play. For those inclined to scoreboard watch, our closest competitors for the final #8 seed appear to be Texas Tech, East Carolina, Louisville, Georgia, Georgia Tech and Oklahoma State - Oregon State as well but we'll have a say in how the Beavers finish.

Barring a poor finish, it would seem Stanford making a top 8 seed overall purely comes down to whether the committee sticks closely to RPI ratings or takes into account everything else. That comes down to the idiosyncrasies of individual committee members, so its rather hard to predict. I would think that the two most helpful things Stanford can do is win both weekend series and manage at least a co-conference championship.

Here's a rundown of key features of the top 10 or so teams, in order of BA rankings.
Find the outlier.

1. UCLA         41-8,   19-5 in Pac 12/tied first, 12-0 in weekend series - BA #2 seed, D1 #1 seed
2. Vanderbilt  41-10,  20-7 in SEC/first,            10-2 in weekend series - BA #1 seed, D1 #2 seed
3. Stanford    37-9,   19-5 in Pac 12/tied first,  11-1 in weekend series - BA #9 seed, D1 #10 seed
4. Arkansas   39-13,  20-8 in SEC/second,       11-2 in weekend series - BA #3 seed, D1 #3 seed
5. Miss. St.    42-10,  18-9 in SEC/fourth,        10-2 in weekend series - BA #4 seed, D1 #4 seed
6. Georgia     39-14,  19-9 in SEC/third,          11-2 in weekend series - BA #5 seed, D1 #7 seed
7. E Carolina  39-12,  18-3 in AAC/first,           11-1 in weekend series - BA #6 seed, D1 #9 seed
8. Ga Tech    35-15,  17-10 in ACC/second,     11-1 in weekend series - BA #10 seed, D1 #6 seed
9. Texas Tch 34-14,  14-7 in Big12/second,       9-2 in weekend series - BA #8 seed, D1 #8 seed
10. Louisville 40-12,  19-8 in ACC/first,              9-4 in weekend series - BA #7 seed, D1 #5 seed