[ColoradoTree]

Stanford women's rowing competes for Stanford's seventh NCAA championship of the year starting today in Indianapolis. I'll defer to the experts on our chances, but considering how close the competition was at the Pac-12 tournament (where Stanford finished 2nd), and because the top three teams in the country hail from the Pac-12 (#1 UW, #2 Cal, #3 Stanford), it seems like a small boost in performance could see Stanford take home another trophy. 

Here's the Stanford preview: https://gostanford.com/news/2019/5/29/wo...ahead.aspx
And here's a link to live results: http://www.regattatiming.com/results/502/

Schedule

They were supposed to have started already this morning, but rowing has been delayed several hours due to debris at the starting line from overnight storms. Preliminary heats and repechages are today, semifinals are tomorrow, and the finals in each race on Sunday morning. Top 2 in each heat make the A/B semifinals, with the rest to the repechages. The top 2 in each repechage race make the A/B semifinals, while the rest go to the C/D semifinals. The top 3 in each semifinal make the Grand (or "A") Final, while the lower 3 make the Petite (or "B") Final. (To have a chance to win the title, you need all three of your boats to make their respective A finals.)

Analysis

At Pac-12s, Stanford finished second in each race--I Varsity Eight, II Varsity Eight, III Varsity Eight, and Varsity Four. Washington won three races (Second and Third Varsity Eights and Varsity Four) while Cal won one (First Varsity Eight), resulting in Washington winning the Pac-12 with 39.5 points, Stanford finishing second with 39, and Cal finishing third with 38.5 points.

At NCAAs, though, I believe it's just three races that count--I and II Varsity Eights and the Varsity Four. In those races, here's how Stanford did vs. Washington and Cal, as they went 1-2-3 in each event:

I Varsity Eight: Stanford finished 0.933 seconds behind Cal and 0.38 seconds ahead of Washington
II Varsity Eight: Stanford finished 7.336 seconds behind UW and just 0.57 seconds ahead of Cal
Varsity Four: Stanford finished 8.334 seconds behind UW and 14.473 seconds ahead of Cal

As I understand it, the scoring system is as follows:

* The winner of the Varsity Four gets 22 points, second place 21, third place 20, etc.
* The winner of the II Varsity Eight gets 44 points, second place 42, third place 40, etc. (i.e., double the points for the Four)
* The winner of the I Varsity Eight gets 66 points, second place 63, third place 60, etc. (i.e., triple the points for the Four)

Thus, team depth is incredibly important. So, the recipe for the Stanford women seems pretty straightforward: pick up the second you need to win the I Varsity Eight (though the gap between Cal and Stanford has been bigger than just one second in other races this year), hold off Cal (and everyone else) for second in the II Varsity Eight, and hold onto second place in the Varsity Four, and that's just enough for a title (that would be 129 points; if UW finished 1st in both the II Eight and the Four and second in the I Eight, they'd also be on 129 points, but if teams are tied on points, the team with the higher placing in the I Eight is the NCAA champion). But even winning the I Eight won't be enough if Stanford doesn't stay right on UW's heels in the other two races.

[ColoradoTree]

Stanford women's rowing competes for Stanford's seventh NCAA championship of the year starting today in Indianapolis. I'll defer to the experts on our chances, but considering how close the competition was at the Pac-12 tournament (where Stanford finished 2nd), and because the top three teams in the country hail from the Pac-12 (#1 UW, #2 Cal, #3 Stanford), it seems like a small boost in performance could see Stanford take home another trophy. 

Here's the Stanford preview: https://gostanford.com/news/2019/5/29/wo...ahead.aspx
And here's a link to live results: http://www.regattatiming.com/results/502/

Schedule

They were supposed to have started already this morning, but rowing has been delayed several hours due to debris at the starting line from overnight storms. Preliminary heats and repechages are today, semifinals are tomorrow, and the finals in each race on Sunday morning. Top 2 in each heat make the A/B semifinals, with the rest to the repechages. The top 2 in each repechage race make the A/B semifinals, while the rest go to the C/D semifinals. The top 3 in each semifinal make the Grand (or "A") Final, while the lower 3 make the Petite (or "B") Final. (To have a chance to win the title, you need all three of your boats to make their respective A finals.)

Analysis

At Pac-12s, Stanford finished second in each race--I Varsity Eight, II Varsity Eight, III Varsity Eight, and Varsity Four. Washington won three races (Second and Third Varsity Eights and Varsity Four) while Cal won one (First Varsity Eight), resulting in Washington winning the Pac-12 with 39.5 points, Stanford finishing second with 39, and Cal finishing third with 38.5 points.

At NCAAs, though, I believe it's just three races that count--I and II Varsity Eights and the Varsity Four. In those races, here's how Stanford did vs. Washington and Cal, as they went 1-2-3 in each event:

I Varsity Eight: Stanford finished 0.933 seconds behind Cal and 0.38 seconds ahead of Washington
II Varsity Eight: Stanford finished 7.336 seconds behind UW and just 0.57 seconds ahead of Cal
Varsity Four: Stanford finished 8.334 seconds behind UW and 14.473 seconds ahead of Cal

As I understand it, the scoring system is as follows:

* The winner of the Varsity Four gets 22 points, second place 21, third place 20, etc.
* The winner of the II Varsity Eight gets 44 points, second place 42, third place 40, etc. (i.e., double the points for the Four)
* The winner of the I Varsity Eight gets 66 points, second place 63, third place 60, etc. (i.e., triple the points for the Four)

Thus, team depth is incredibly important. So, the recipe for the Stanford women seems pretty straightforward: pick up the second you need to win the I Varsity Eight (though the gap between Cal and Stanford has been bigger than just one second in other races this year), hold off Cal (and everyone else) for second in the II Varsity Eight, and hold onto second place in the Varsity Four, and that's just enough for a title (that would be 129 points; if UW finished 1st in both the II Eight and the Four and second in the I Eight, they'd also be on 129 points, but if teams are tied on points, the team with the higher placing in the I Eight is the NCAA champion). But even winning the I Eight won't be enough if Stanford doesn't stay right on UW's heels in the other two races.