[CornFed]

I am a proud Shawpologist.

The myriad reasons that have been offered for our recent poor results cannot all be true at the same time.  I've heard everything from recruiting to play-calling to insular coordinator promotions to strength and conditioning to admissions standards to CTE to demographics. And more.

Let's see where we end up at the end of the year.  We may very well be 7-6, 6-7, or worse, but would that be a sign of the apocalypse?  No.  I expected 8 regular season wins this year but Vegas expected only 6 - from the outside looking in, this was never going to be a great year.   

Mark Dantonio was 3-9 in 2016 and 10-3 the next year.
Brian Kelly was 4-8 in 2016; two years later, ND went 12-1 and made the CFP.
Are these bad coaches? Are good coaches not permitted one down year, from time to time? 

If David Shaw knee-jerked a fraction as often as we message board pundits called for it, I'm certain he would be a less successful coach in the long run. We're all concerned that a number of problem areas look like trends that are only getting worse. But regression to the mean works in both directions. Luck improves, players and coaches compensate, new talents come out of the blue, freshmen get excessive playing time and turn into fantastic contributors as sophomores.

I still believe we are unlikely to see 2-3 losing seasons in a row under Coach Shaw.  If and when we do, that will be a reasonable time for both sides to question the relationship, but we are far from that point.  

Well, frankly. They all can be true. Seemingly, we've regressed in a myriad of areas. Including in those areas you mentioned, and in many more. Apparent complacency is one you did mention, and it crosses everything.

FWIW, new talent doesn't come out of the blue, it gets recruited. And luck has very little to do with winning, unless of course it's Andrew.

Just so I understand, are you basing “apparent complacency” on a string of 9-win seasons, a win over the Big Ten West champion, two bad road losses, and a 2020 recruiting class that is light on D but generally of normal quality for us?

Perhaps a little recency bias there?

Nope. Same thing several folks here have been worried about for a few years. Sadly, they predicted the future accurately thus far.

Yeah.  It's like predicting 10 of the last two recessions.  The naysayers have been naysaying almost since Day 1 of the David Shaw era.  Eventually there will be some period during which our system falls out of sync, bad decisions are made, we leave Bloomberg in charge of OL and OL recruitment past his "sell-by" date, the strength and conditioning guru lapses, our success leads to early departures for the NFL, unexpected medical retirements, etc. etc. etc.

The "pounce factor" by Shaw's critics is pathetic.  He has never had fewer than 8 victories.  And 3 games into the season that MAY break that trend we've got folks all too happy to trot out their sense of superior insight to what he's been doing wrong all this time.

I don't think Shaw is comfortable losing.  I respect that he doesn't jerk the program around in a panic every time things don't go our way for a bit.  I suspect that, if we win 6 or fewer games this year, he will not be sleeping soundly, looking forward to the next season of Blacklist.  In that event I will be very interested to see what he does to adjust.  Many very good thoughts have been shared here about what actions he might consider.  But while I agree that he seems stubborn about some things, I do not think he's stupid.  Those here who perceive him to be some current version of Woody Hayes are welcome to their opinion.  I just don't agree.

[CornFed]

I am a proud Shawpologist.

The myriad reasons that have been offered for our recent poor results cannot all be true at the same time.  I've heard everything from recruiting to play-calling to insular coordinator promotions to strength and conditioning to admissions standards to CTE to demographics. And more.

Let's see where we end up at the end of the year.  We may very well be 7-6, 6-7, or worse, but would that be a sign of the apocalypse?  No.  I expected 8 regular season wins this year but Vegas expected only 6 - from the outside looking in, this was never going to be a great year.   

Mark Dantonio was 3-9 in 2016 and 10-3 the next year.
Brian Kelly was 4-8 in 2016; two years later, ND went 12-1 and made the CFP.
Are these bad coaches? Are good coaches not permitted one down year, from time to time? 

If David Shaw knee-jerked a fraction as often as we message board pundits called for it, I'm certain he would be a less successful coach in the long run. We're all concerned that a number of problem areas look like trends that are only getting worse. But regression to the mean works in both directions. Luck improves, players and coaches compensate, new talents come out of the blue, freshmen get excessive playing time and turn into fantastic contributors as sophomores.

I still believe we are unlikely to see 2-3 losing seasons in a row under Coach Shaw.  If and when we do, that will be a reasonable time for both sides to question the relationship, but we are far from that point.  

Well, frankly. They all can be true. Seemingly, we've regressed in a myriad of areas. Including in those areas you mentioned, and in many more. Apparent complacency is one you did mention, and it crosses everything.

FWIW, new talent doesn't come out of the blue, it gets recruited. And luck has very little to do with winning, unless of course it's Andrew.

Just so I understand, are you basing “apparent complacency” on a string of 9-win seasons, a win over the Big Ten West champion, two bad road losses, and a 2020 recruiting class that is light on D but generally of normal quality for us?

Perhaps a little recency bias there?

Nope. Same thing several folks here have been worried about for a few years. Sadly, they predicted the future accurately thus far.

Yeah.  It's like predicting 10 of the last two recessions.  The naysayers have been naysaying almost since Day 1 of the David Shaw era.  Eventually there will be some period during which our system falls out of sync, bad decisions are made, we leave Bloomberg in charge of OL and OL recruitment past his "sell-by" date, the strength and conditioning guru lapses, our success leads to early departures for the NFL, unexpected medical retirements, etc. etc. etc.

The "pounce factor" by Shaw's critics is pathetic.  He has never had fewer than 8 victories.  And 3 games into the season that MAY break that trend we've got folks all too happy to trot out their sense of superior insight to what he's been doing wrong all this time.

I don't think Shaw is comfortable losing.  I respect that he doesn't jerk the program around in a panic every time things don't go our way for a bit.  I suspect that, if we win 6 or fewer games this year, he will not be sleeping soundly, looking forward to the next season of Blacklist.  In that event I will be very interested to see what he does to adjust.  Many very good thoughts have been shared here about what actions he might consider.  But while I agree that he seems stubborn about some things, I do not think he's stupid.  Those here who perceive him to be some current version of Woody Hayes are welcome to their opinion.  I just don't agree.