[BostonCard]

Nope. Same thing several folks here have been worried about for a few years. Sadly, they predicted the future accurately thus far.

This strikes me a bit like Paul Samuelson's quip that "To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties."

I'm old enough to remember how after Andrew Luck graduated, and after the first few games where Nunes struggled, people were stating confidently that Shaw could not win without Luck, and that we were headed for dark times; instead we went to the Rose Bowl, in consecutive seasons.  I remember after MSU shut down our offense in that second Rose Bowl, and after we started 2014 5-5 that many of the same people predicted that our offense had grown stagnant and had become easy to stop.  We won the last three games in dominant fashion, scoring 38, 31, and 45 points.  I remember after Northwestern beat us in 2015, again the critics noted that the fact that we could only muster 6 points despite our weapons meant that Shaw had lost a step.  Instead, we went on to win 12 out of the next 13 games, our third Pac-12 championship in four years, culminating with a shellacking of Iowa in the Rose Bowl.  I remember when our offensive line struggled in 2016 and we went through a four game period where we got crushed by Washington and Washington State, scored one offensive touchdown against Notre Dame, then mustered 5 points against Colorado.  Sitting at 4-3, with a bunch of ugly games, surely Shaw's coaching incompetence would become obvious.  We didn't lose the rest of the season, and wound up with another 10-win season.  OK, but we had Christian McCaffrey then.  Surely in 2017, when we started 1-2 with losses on the road against USC and a G5 team (sound familiar) that portended gloom and doom, no?  Well, wrong again.  We won eight of the next nine games and the Pac-12 North title.  Another year, another 9-win season.  OK, but 2018... we couldn't run the ball for jack squat, our offense looked bad.  Our defense continued to slip from the glory years of 2012 - 2013.  We went through a five game period where we lost to Notre Dame by three touchdowns, Utah by 19 points, Washington State at home and Washington, barely eeking out a win against lowly ASU in between them.  At five and four, many wondered whether we'd see our seventh win after we beat OSU.  And of course, we actually won our last four straight for yet another 9 win season.
I do think there are some structural reasons that this year's team will struggle.  I don't think we've found answers for the questions at key positions, and injuries have exacerbated the situation.  I predicted a 7-6 season prior to the year, and from what I've seen so far, I would be inclined to downgrade the forecast.  But I think looking back and saying, this was predictable a long time ago only works if your predictions also included 3 Pac-12 championships, 4 Pac-12 N titles, 8 winning seasons, and no season with fewer than 8 wins since Shaw took over.
Of course the ride will end someday.  But nobody should be credit for saying this is the year it will end... every damned year.

BC

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Yeah.  It's like predicting 10 of the last two recessions. 

Ha! Looks like we reached for the same (paraphrased) Samuelson quote.  Great minds or something...

BC

[BostonCard]

Nope. Same thing several folks here have been worried about for a few years. Sadly, they predicted the future accurately thus far.

This strikes me a bit like Paul Samuelson's quip that "To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties."

I'm old enough to remember how after Andrew Luck graduated, and after the first few games where Nunes struggled, people were stating confidently that Shaw could not win without Luck, and that we were headed for dark times; instead we went to the Rose Bowl, in consecutive seasons.  I remember after MSU shut down our offense in that second Rose Bowl, and after we started 2014 5-5 that many of the same people predicted that our offense had grown stagnant and had become easy to stop.  We won the last three games in dominant fashion, scoring 38, 31, and 45 points.  I remember after Northwestern beat us in 2015, again the critics noted that the fact that we could only muster 6 points despite our weapons meant that Shaw had lost a step.  Instead, we went on to win 12 out of the next 13 games, our third Pac-12 championship in four years, culminating with a shellacking of Iowa in the Rose Bowl.  I remember when our offensive line struggled in 2016 and we went through a four game period where we got crushed by Washington and Washington State, scored one offensive touchdown against Notre Dame, then mustered 5 points against Colorado.  Sitting at 4-3, with a bunch of ugly games, surely Shaw's coaching incompetence would become obvious.  We didn't lose the rest of the season, and wound up with another 10-win season.  OK, but we had Christian McCaffrey then.  Surely in 2017, when we started 1-2 with losses on the road against USC and a G5 team (sound familiar) that portended gloom and doom, no?  Well, wrong again.  We won eight of the next nine games and the Pac-12 North title.  Another year, another 9-win season.  OK, but 2018... we couldn't run the ball for jack squat, our offense looked bad.  Our defense continued to slip from the glory years of 2012 - 2013.  We went through a five game period where we lost to Notre Dame by three touchdowns, Utah by 19 points, Washington State at home and Washington, barely eeking out a win against lowly ASU in between them.  At five and four, many wondered whether we'd see our seventh win after we beat OSU.  And of course, we actually won our last four straight for yet another 9 win season.
I do think there are some structural reasons that this year's team will struggle.  I don't think we've found answers for the questions at key positions, and injuries have exacerbated the situation.  I predicted a 7-6 season prior to the year, and from what I've seen so far, I would be inclined to downgrade the forecast.  But I think looking back and saying, this was predictable a long time ago only works if your predictions also included 3 Pac-12 championships, 4 Pac-12 N titles, 8 winning seasons, and no season with fewer than 8 wins since Shaw took over.
Of course the ride will end someday.  But nobody should be credit for saying this is the year it will end... every damned year.

BC

---

Yeah.  It's like predicting 10 of the last two recessions. 

Ha! Looks like we reached for the same (paraphrased) Samuelson quote.  Great minds or something...

BC