09-23-2019, 01:24 PM
Stanford's offense is horrendous right now, but most of the problems go well beyond issues of choosing better play calls and probably any particular overall scheme.
My biggest concern is that Costello is not healthy - even beyond hitting his thumb on a helmet in the first half. Costello has shown he can be a very good QB, beyond just the ability of JJAW to make amazing catches, and was very good as recently as the Northwestern game before he got knocked out. Now he cannot make throws he made before and appears much less decisive.
The OL is holding up better than I would have feared given the personnel situation. It's not good, but it is not clear it is the weak link.
The running game is bad, but better than last year. Our RBs are averaging 4.9 yards/carry. Last year they were a little under 4.6. In 2013 (the year with Gaffney returning as lead back) we averaged 5.0, though on a lot of carries. Our best modern-times years for RB yds/carry were 2016 (McCaffrey's last year) at 6.2 and 2017 (Love goes nuts) at 6.7.
Our passing game is a disaster, but we're using it a lot. Our official percentage of pass plays is 54.4%, but our called passes are clearly over 60% (10 official sacks, and at least 10 more desperation scrambles I would say). Yet our PER is currently at 106, that's 33 points south of anyone else in the conference and about 20 points south of Stanford's worst passing season in the past decade (2016, the Burns and Chryst show).
The receivers can't get open, can't make contested catches, and Costello cannot throw right now with accuracy or velocity. Not sure what scheme solves that.
Some of this is that we have only played good teams so far. (Oregon's defense is very good by the way - even if they haven't faced only juggernauts. Even Nevada is 3-1 with a win over Purdue.) But since there isn't a single functioning part of the offense, it seems silly to recommend any particular strategy at the moment - none look likely to succeed.
I guess all in all, the only hope I really feel for the offense is that five of the next six opponents have poor defenses and somewhere in there Costello might heal up. If he can't then I would try Mills again. What I wouldn't do is start rotating through the whole bench fantasizing that one will suddenly catch fire out of nowhere.
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On a more optimistic note: the defense seems schizophrenic but at least occasionally good. That was a good performance vs Oregon - fewer yards and points than Oregon managed against Auburn and far lower than against their other opponents. They also giave up fewer yards and points than Northwestern has put up versus anyone else - and they played Michigan State. Even the second half versus UCF was credible, though it may be that UCF had simply quit trying by that point.
My biggest concern is that Costello is not healthy - even beyond hitting his thumb on a helmet in the first half. Costello has shown he can be a very good QB, beyond just the ability of JJAW to make amazing catches, and was very good as recently as the Northwestern game before he got knocked out. Now he cannot make throws he made before and appears much less decisive.
The OL is holding up better than I would have feared given the personnel situation. It's not good, but it is not clear it is the weak link.
The running game is bad, but better than last year. Our RBs are averaging 4.9 yards/carry. Last year they were a little under 4.6. In 2013 (the year with Gaffney returning as lead back) we averaged 5.0, though on a lot of carries. Our best modern-times years for RB yds/carry were 2016 (McCaffrey's last year) at 6.2 and 2017 (Love goes nuts) at 6.7.
Our passing game is a disaster, but we're using it a lot. Our official percentage of pass plays is 54.4%, but our called passes are clearly over 60% (10 official sacks, and at least 10 more desperation scrambles I would say). Yet our PER is currently at 106, that's 33 points south of anyone else in the conference and about 20 points south of Stanford's worst passing season in the past decade (2016, the Burns and Chryst show).
The receivers can't get open, can't make contested catches, and Costello cannot throw right now with accuracy or velocity. Not sure what scheme solves that.
Some of this is that we have only played good teams so far. (Oregon's defense is very good by the way - even if they haven't faced only juggernauts. Even Nevada is 3-1 with a win over Purdue.) But since there isn't a single functioning part of the offense, it seems silly to recommend any particular strategy at the moment - none look likely to succeed.
I guess all in all, the only hope I really feel for the offense is that five of the next six opponents have poor defenses and somewhere in there Costello might heal up. If he can't then I would try Mills again. What I wouldn't do is start rotating through the whole bench fantasizing that one will suddenly catch fire out of nowhere.
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On a more optimistic note: the defense seems schizophrenic but at least occasionally good. That was a good performance vs Oregon - fewer yards and points than Oregon managed against Auburn and far lower than against their other opponents. They also giave up fewer yards and points than Northwestern has put up versus anyone else - and they played Michigan State. Even the second half versus UCF was credible, though it may be that UCF had simply quit trying by that point.