[2006alum]

Except stats prove that we are worse. however, i do acknowledge that a few of our opponents have been great for almost all the game (sometimes perfect as OSU was last night) and then miss some key FTs down the stretch (clearly nerves or mental). Regardless, the numbers show that we are giving away way too much in FTs at both ends and it's costly.

Your observations about the Hulls is interesting. I'm curious to know the consensus here by folks as to how much of the foul disparity relates to officiating and how much to our players/style of play. What I don't get is why recent years have been so bad compared to the past. Maybe Monty's teams and older Tara teams relied more on bigger posts/more offense in the post which created fouls as opposed to different types/styles now? OTOH, our PGs used to go to the line a bunch.

I guess I question a bit how much "worse" we are, at least for the women. (I haven't followed the men closely enough for the past decade to have anything useful to add.) For the women, here's our numbers over the past 10 years:

Us v. Opponents, FT%
10-11: .742 to .656
11-12: .762 to .676
12-13: .718 to .699
13-14: .698 to .655
14-15: .720 to .678
15-16: .692 to .692
16-17: .692 to .687
17-18: .642 to .720
18-19: .699 to .715
19-20: .701 to .714 (to date)

So in the past decade, we tied or had the edge over our opponents every year until 17-18 forward. Let's break down each part of this.

First, us: apart from our last golden years (10-11 and 11-12), we've pretty much hovered +/- .020 from .700 just about every year, including this one. So I don't notice a considerable downward trend since Nneka graduated. And speaking of which, those 10-11 and 11-12 teams had four future WNBA first-round players on them. We have simply never had as much talent in a starting 5 since the streak of A-A's beginning with Wiggins and ending with Chiney. I think we will likely be there again in a year or two, but it's perhaps not a coincidence that our FT% is the highest it's been since 14-15. 

Second, them: quite simply, our competition has gotten much, much better because of the growth of quality in the PAC-12. Recall that we easily won the regular conference title every year from 2001-2014. Since then, precisely when we last won it, conference competition has markedly improved. Sure, that argument is a *bit* tautological, since part of their improvement has been at the line. But I just think we are facing much better players and those players will, in general, be better FT shooters, all else equal. One way to tell is our opponent's FG% over that same time:

Us v. Opponents, FG%
09-10: .463 to .339
10-11: .492 to .336
11-12: .456 to .339
12-13: .455 to .316
13-14: .470 to .357
14-15: .435 to .370
15-16: .426 to .338
16-17: .445 to .350
17-18: .424 to .367
18-19: .442 to .358
19-20: .448 to .346 (to date)

When I look at those numbers, I'm just not convinced that our FT% is a significant problem vs. any other facet of our game (esp. since I think our average defense has improved in the past decade, even in the face of better competition). Since 13-14, our last year winning the PAC-12, our FG% has declined alongside our FT%, and our competition has been consistently better than it was before that.

The only year where it really seems like we were hurting vs. our opponents at the line was 17-18, and it's notable that we lost three starters off a Final Four team and our two leading scorers, Brittany McPhee (.687) and Alanna Smith (.531), were among the worst FT shooters we've had among our "star players" in the past decade. By comparison, this season Williams (.877) and Lexie (.766) seem downright clutch.

[2006alum]

Except stats prove that we are worse. however, i do acknowledge that a few of our opponents have been great for almost all the game (sometimes perfect as OSU was last night) and then miss some key FTs down the stretch (clearly nerves or mental). Regardless, the numbers show that we are giving away way too much in FTs at both ends and it's costly.

Your observations about the Hulls is interesting. I'm curious to know the consensus here by folks as to how much of the foul disparity relates to officiating and how much to our players/style of play. What I don't get is why recent years have been so bad compared to the past. Maybe Monty's teams and older Tara teams relied more on bigger posts/more offense in the post which created fouls as opposed to different types/styles now? OTOH, our PGs used to go to the line a bunch.

I guess I question a bit how much "worse" we are, at least for the women. (I haven't followed the men closely enough for the past decade to have anything useful to add.) For the women, here's our numbers over the past 10 years:

Us v. Opponents, FT%
10-11: .742 to .656
11-12: .762 to .676
12-13: .718 to .699
13-14: .698 to .655
14-15: .720 to .678
15-16: .692 to .692
16-17: .692 to .687
17-18: .642 to .720
18-19: .699 to .715
19-20: .701 to .714 (to date)

So in the past decade, we tied or had the edge over our opponents every year until 17-18 forward. Let's break down each part of this.

First, us: apart from our last golden years (10-11 and 11-12), we've pretty much hovered +/- .020 from .700 just about every year, including this one. So I don't notice a considerable downward trend since Nneka graduated. And speaking of which, those 10-11 and 11-12 teams had four future WNBA first-round players on them. We have simply never had as much talent in a starting 5 since the streak of A-A's beginning with Wiggins and ending with Chiney. I think we will likely be there again in a year or two, but it's perhaps not a coincidence that our FT% is the highest it's been since 14-15. 

Second, them: quite simply, our competition has gotten much, much better because of the growth of quality in the PAC-12. Recall that we easily won the regular conference title every year from 2001-2014. Since then, precisely when we last won it, conference competition has markedly improved. Sure, that argument is a *bit* tautological, since part of their improvement has been at the line. But I just think we are facing much better players and those players will, in general, be better FT shooters, all else equal. One way to tell is our opponent's FG% over that same time:

Us v. Opponents, FG%
09-10: .463 to .339
10-11: .492 to .336
11-12: .456 to .339
12-13: .455 to .316
13-14: .470 to .357
14-15: .435 to .370
15-16: .426 to .338
16-17: .445 to .350
17-18: .424 to .367
18-19: .442 to .358
19-20: .448 to .346 (to date)

When I look at those numbers, I'm just not convinced that our FT% is a significant problem vs. any other facet of our game (esp. since I think our average defense has improved in the past decade, even in the face of better competition). Since 13-14, our last year winning the PAC-12, our FG% has declined alongside our FT%, and our competition has been consistently better than it was before that.

The only year where it really seems like we were hurting vs. our opponents at the line was 17-18, and it's notable that we lost three starters off a Final Four team and our two leading scorers, Brittany McPhee (.687) and Alanna Smith (.531), were among the worst FT shooters we've had among our "star players" in the past decade. By comparison, this season Williams (.877) and Lexie (.766) seem downright clutch.