02-27-2020, 12:36 PM
@OutsiderFan's post is great but comes with a couple of caveats:
1) The early mortailty estimates may be wrong. With H1N1 flu (swine flu, 2009), some of the early fatality rate estimates were off by a factor of 100. Not saying that's true here, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty, and the numbers could change either way. There could be deaths that were not attributed to the virus (this would mean the rate is actually higher), and there could be mild cases that didn't count towards the total (which would mean a lower death rate).
2) I would be cautious about some of the extreme reports. There are alternate explanations for the 27-day incubation period (early test failed to detect or the patient picked up the virus elsewhere) and the second infection (patient never recovered, initial false positive test, etc.). Again, I'm not saying these things are wrong. It's just uncertain until more data come in.
One thing I think not mentioned above is that the disease seems to hit older (over 60, maybe) and immune compromised people much harder. So if that's you, be extra careful.
1) The early mortailty estimates may be wrong. With H1N1 flu (swine flu, 2009), some of the early fatality rate estimates were off by a factor of 100. Not saying that's true here, but there is quite a bit of uncertainty, and the numbers could change either way. There could be deaths that were not attributed to the virus (this would mean the rate is actually higher), and there could be mild cases that didn't count towards the total (which would mean a lower death rate).
2) I would be cautious about some of the extreme reports. There are alternate explanations for the 27-day incubation period (early test failed to detect or the patient picked up the virus elsewhere) and the second infection (patient never recovered, initial false positive test, etc.). Again, I'm not saying these things are wrong. It's just uncertain until more data come in.
One thing I think not mentioned above is that the disease seems to hit older (over 60, maybe) and immune compromised people much harder. So if that's you, be extra careful.
