I appreciate this thread and especially look forward to insights and information from people with a medical background.
This thread has listed some facts that I haven't seen listed elsewhere, and I'd be interested to see the sources for them. I'm not disputing them, but there have been some assertions I haven't seen mentioned elsewhere, so I'd like to dig into them more.
For example, it was listed here that Covid-19 has an Ro of at least 2.5. I haven't read any place listing a number that high. And if it were that high, how is it that the numbers from Wuhan have come down so much?
Also, I haven't heard of case(s) where symptoms didn't show up until 24 days later. The CDC currently lists 2-14 days.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco...ptoms.html
Also, it was suggested that reinfection, if that is verified, could complicate the development of a vaccine, but the description I've seen was that the virus was dormant. This could make containment more difficult, but from my reading, it wouldn't necessarily complicate vaccination.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-j...9-11944295
I'm also curious about 2 things from other Cardboard members.
1) How wide of an impact do they think (or predict) it will ultimately be, and
2) Are they taking any particular actions or preparations
For my part
1) Domestically, I think there is <50% chance there will be significant fatalities in the US (enough to significantly change the typical annual US flu fatalities). I would expect that with increased hygiene and caution (people wash their hands better, stay home when they are sick, and self-quarantine after international travel), I could see a >50% chance that the total number of flu+covid 19 fatalities in the US in 2020 and 2021 will actually decrease (be below the annual average of ~40,000). Globally, I could see thousands to tens of thousands of covid 19 fatalities in less developed nations, and a good chance (>35%) of a significant global economic impact.
2) With that domestic expectation I am not making many changes in my life. I am washing my hands even more thoroughly that I usually do. I was considering some international travel this summer, and have stopped considering that. I have decided not to attend a conference in Las Vegas in June that I usually go to, but still plan on driving to the San Diego Comic Con this summer (first time attendee!). I am somewhat reducing even my domestic travel plans this year, and if I fly, I will purchase refundable tickets just in case there is a regional flare-up. But otherwise, I haven't made any other changes. I still plan to take the family to see my parents in Washington over Christmas. I don't plan to stock up on supplies any more than I usually do as part of my earthquake preparedness. I'll try to make sure I have more than a month's supply of any prescriptions in case there is a supply disruption. I already had a small supply of N-95 masks due to my allergies and sensitivity to CA fire smoke, but haven't purchased any more due to covid 19 (although I would if there was not any price gouging).
This thread has listed some facts that I haven't seen listed elsewhere, and I'd be interested to see the sources for them. I'm not disputing them, but there have been some assertions I haven't seen mentioned elsewhere, so I'd like to dig into them more.
For example, it was listed here that Covid-19 has an Ro of at least 2.5. I haven't read any place listing a number that high. And if it were that high, how is it that the numbers from Wuhan have come down so much?
Also, I haven't heard of case(s) where symptoms didn't show up until 24 days later. The CDC currently lists 2-14 days.
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-nco...ptoms.html
Also, it was suggested that reinfection, if that is verified, could complicate the development of a vaccine, but the description I've seen was that the virus was dormant. This could make containment more difficult, but from my reading, it wouldn't necessarily complicate vaccination.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-j...9-11944295
I'm also curious about 2 things from other Cardboard members.
1) How wide of an impact do they think (or predict) it will ultimately be, and
2) Are they taking any particular actions or preparations
For my part
1) Domestically, I think there is <50% chance there will be significant fatalities in the US (enough to significantly change the typical annual US flu fatalities). I would expect that with increased hygiene and caution (people wash their hands better, stay home when they are sick, and self-quarantine after international travel), I could see a >50% chance that the total number of flu+covid 19 fatalities in the US in 2020 and 2021 will actually decrease (be below the annual average of ~40,000). Globally, I could see thousands to tens of thousands of covid 19 fatalities in less developed nations, and a good chance (>35%) of a significant global economic impact.
2) With that domestic expectation I am not making many changes in my life. I am washing my hands even more thoroughly that I usually do. I was considering some international travel this summer, and have stopped considering that. I have decided not to attend a conference in Las Vegas in June that I usually go to, but still plan on driving to the San Diego Comic Con this summer (first time attendee!). I am somewhat reducing even my domestic travel plans this year, and if I fly, I will purchase refundable tickets just in case there is a regional flare-up. But otherwise, I haven't made any other changes. I still plan to take the family to see my parents in Washington over Christmas. I don't plan to stock up on supplies any more than I usually do as part of my earthquake preparedness. I'll try to make sure I have more than a month's supply of any prescriptions in case there is a supply disruption. I already had a small supply of N-95 masks due to my allergies and sensitivity to CA fire smoke, but haven't purchased any more due to covid 19 (although I would if there was not any price gouging).