[M T]

I have a medical condition that makes me prone to pneumonia (3x in 5yr).  I flew domestically last week and wore a surgical mask on the flights & at a concert because this is flu season (not for Covid-19).   I tried 3 drug stores in the Bay Area and was unable to find any masks, but I had one from my last hospitalization.  I did find a box of masks at my destination.

I don't see Covid-19 being any better contained than the common cold in the US or abroad.  Maybe it can be delayed a few months, but it will spread throughout the global population.   It may hit first in the US in, say, San Jose, but I believe that by the end of the year, it will hit every major city and most, if not all, minor cities.  We will be (rightly) focused on the first few cases which will get stringent isolation, but then it will have to be treated more economically.  When you get it (or, rather, think you have it). you may go to your doctor or clinic to be evaluated as to whether you need further care.

US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said

“It's really important we correct this impression that it will require this massive hospital isolation for normal patients,” Azar said. “If we end up having broader spread, it’ll be a much more common approach."

 

However, if classes of those infected have high fatality rates, this will be a problem.  I am in one of those classes.  Will the US employ containment strategies like China did?  I don't know, but whether it does or not, any decision will be unpopular.

The CDC indicates that for flu (not Covid-19) death rates were 2 per 100,000 US population in 2017.
The CDC indicates that currently 2641 Covid-19 deaths in the 59,170,000 people in Hubei province, a death rate of 4.5 per 100,000 population, so far, even with the dramatic measures taken.  (Note this is looking at the ground-zero province of the outbreak only.  I expect it is higher in the main city, and much lower if you looked at all of China.)  All other outbreaks of Covid-19 are too new.

[M T]

I have a medical condition that makes me prone to pneumonia (3x in 5yr).  I flew domestically last week and wore a surgical mask on the flights & at a concert because this is flu season (not for Covid-19).   I tried 3 drug stores in the Bay Area and was unable to find any masks, but I had one from my last hospitalization.  I did find a box of masks at my destination.

I don't see Covid-19 being any better contained than the common cold in the US or abroad.  Maybe it can be delayed a few months, but it will spread throughout the global population.   It may hit first in the US in, say, San Jose, but I believe that by the end of the year, it will hit every major city and most, if not all, minor cities.  We will be (rightly) focused on the first few cases which will get stringent isolation, but then it will have to be treated more economically.  When you get it (or, rather, think you have it). you may go to your doctor or clinic to be evaluated as to whether you need further care.

US Health and Human Services Secretary Alex Azar said

“It's really important we correct this impression that it will require this massive hospital isolation for normal patients,” Azar said. “If we end up having broader spread, it’ll be a much more common approach."

 

However, if classes of those infected have high fatality rates, this will be a problem.  I am in one of those classes.  Will the US employ containment strategies like China did?  I don't know, but whether it does or not, any decision will be unpopular.

The CDC indicates that for flu (not Covid-19) death rates were 2 per 100,000 US population in 2017.
The CDC indicates that currently 2641 Covid-19 deaths in the 59,170,000 people in Hubei province, a death rate of 4.5 per 100,000 population, so far, even with the dramatic measures taken.  (Note this is looking at the ground-zero province of the outbreak only.  I expect it is higher in the main city, and much lower if you looked at all of China.)  All other outbreaks of Covid-19 are too new.