[BostonCard]

Ro study at Los Alamos National Lab link to PDF: https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.03268

Thanks for the link.  One big question on all these estimates is the number of asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic (patients who feel like they have a run of the mill URI) who are contagious but not getting tested, and thus not included in the stats.  My guess is that estimates of R0 are probably low because of it (on the flip side, estimates of mortality are probably on the high side for the same reason; there are a lot fewer deaths who didn’t get tested than lightly symptomatic patients), as you can see in the disparity of the death rate in China versus countries that have done meticulous contact tracing).

BC

[BostonCard]

Ro study at Los Alamos National Lab link to PDF: https://arxiv.org/abs/2002.03268

Thanks for the link.  One big question on all these estimates is the number of asymptomatic or lightly symptomatic (patients who feel like they have a run of the mill URI) who are contagious but not getting tested, and thus not included in the stats.  My guess is that estimates of R0 are probably low because of it (on the flip side, estimates of mortality are probably on the high side for the same reason; there are a lot fewer deaths who didn’t get tested than lightly symptomatic patients), as you can see in the disparity of the death rate in China versus countries that have done meticulous contact tracing).

BC