[M T]

The reported mortality rates mean that you as an individual probably have a decent chance of survival, but applied to entire populations, the implications are not good.

I have removed a calculation that I did here (available upon request) because it could be misunderstood and is alarming if misunderstood.  The final conclusion, based on the Chinese CDC numbers and the population distribution of the US, was that the death rate (across the total population) for those confirmed with Covid-19 will be 3 times than if they don't get the disease.

While some don't believe the denominator of the number of cases in China, I've yet to see any demonstration that they are wrong.  On a newscast, I saw a woman from WHO that was investigating that.  My understanding is that she said they haven't found that the numbers are wrong.  I've not been able to find that newscast.  I did find a WHO-China joint mission which seemed to accept the denominator, as reported 24-Feb

Earlier today the WHO-China joint mission concluded its visit and delivered its report.
As you know, the team has traveled to several different provinces, including Wuhan.
The team has made a range of findings about the transmissibility of the virus, the severity of disease and the impact of the measures taken.
They found that the fatality rate is between 2% and 4% in Wuhan, and 0.7% outside Wuhan.
They found that for people with mild disease, recovery time is about two weeks, while people with severe or critical disease recover within three to six weeks.

(emphasis added)

HOWEVER, note that the fatality rate (0.7%) outside Wuhan was 1/3 to 1/6  of the rate in Wuhan.  This suggests to me that the fatality rate was much lower when the health care system wasn't overloaded.   I hope that to be the case in the rest of the world IF steps are taken to limit transmission, thus avoiding overwhelming the health care system.

[M T]

The reported mortality rates mean that you as an individual probably have a decent chance of survival, but applied to entire populations, the implications are not good.

I have removed a calculation that I did here (available upon request) because it could be misunderstood and is alarming if misunderstood.  The final conclusion, based on the Chinese CDC numbers and the population distribution of the US, was that the death rate (across the total population) for those confirmed with Covid-19 will be 3 times than if they don't get the disease.

While some don't believe the denominator of the number of cases in China, I've yet to see any demonstration that they are wrong.  On a newscast, I saw a woman from WHO that was investigating that.  My understanding is that she said they haven't found that the numbers are wrong.  I've not been able to find that newscast.  I did find a WHO-China joint mission which seemed to accept the denominator, as reported 24-Feb

Earlier today the WHO-China joint mission concluded its visit and delivered its report.
As you know, the team has traveled to several different provinces, including Wuhan.
The team has made a range of findings about the transmissibility of the virus, the severity of disease and the impact of the measures taken.
They found that the fatality rate is between 2% and 4% in Wuhan, and 0.7% outside Wuhan.
They found that for people with mild disease, recovery time is about two weeks, while people with severe or critical disease recover within three to six weeks.

(emphasis added)

HOWEVER, note that the fatality rate (0.7%) outside Wuhan was 1/3 to 1/6  of the rate in Wuhan.  This suggests to me that the fatality rate was much lower when the health care system wasn't overloaded.   I hope that to be the case in the rest of the world IF steps are taken to limit transmission, thus avoiding overwhelming the health care system.