[oldalum]

I am just not that concerned about the details about CFRs and methods and reports and statistical adjustments and whatnot: my only point is that the published CFRs are uncertain and are likely to change as better evidence becomes available. My apparent mistake has been to say anything else in support of that point, which then becomes fodder to be picked at. To me it is incontrovertible that IF there is a significant number of mild and asymptomatic cases, then the current CFRs are likely too high. My best guess--and it's just a guess--is that due to such case ascertainment bias, the CFRs will likely end up lower than currently published. That's an opinion and can be proven wrong. If conclusive evidence proves me wrong, then like any good scientist I will cling even more tightly to my opinion, kicking and screaming all the way down. And that's my last word on the subject (until my next one)

[oldalum]

I am just not that concerned about the details about CFRs and methods and reports and statistical adjustments and whatnot: my only point is that the published CFRs are uncertain and are likely to change as better evidence becomes available. My apparent mistake has been to say anything else in support of that point, which then becomes fodder to be picked at. To me it is incontrovertible that IF there is a significant number of mild and asymptomatic cases, then the current CFRs are likely too high. My best guess--and it's just a guess--is that due to such case ascertainment bias, the CFRs will likely end up lower than currently published. That's an opinion and can be proven wrong. If conclusive evidence proves me wrong, then like any good scientist I will cling even more tightly to my opinion, kicking and screaming all the way down. And that's my last word on the subject (until my next one)