[M T]

What the impacts are and what to do about it is an entirely different discussion. I'm actually coming to the conclusion that humanity might as well just stop even trying to contain it because it is so incredibly virulent and can hide so easily. I'm even beginning to wonder if it actually makes any sense to continue reporting cases, because this is just gonna cause more freakout


It would seem whether we sequester ourselves or take no precautions to avoid transmission, the end result is gonna be something really bad and exceptionally painful. Basically, I think akiddoc and I are on the same page.  We just sort of throw our hands up in the air, admit there are some things we as humans can't control, see what happens, and deal with the unavoidable consequences as they manifest.

I don't know that it will happen until we see Wuhan-style death numbers, but suppose we quarantine everyone, would that do any good?  If we're all going to someday get the disease, what good does it do?

In Wuhan (pop. 11M), the patient 0 got sick 1-Dec.  They noticed something going on in late December. (We're getting to that point, except that I believe it has spread much wider in the US because of  multiple infection sites & more travel.)   About 3 weeks later (17 Jan), they shut the city down.  About a month later (18 Feb) the number of patients in the hospital peaked (38,000 with 1500 deaths).   As of 1-Mar, all the severity indices continue to fall.   The deaths/(deaths + discharges) over the last 7 days is now just under 2%.  New confirmed infections yesterday was under 200, far below the 1600+ at the peak.   In China, outside of Wuhan, the numbers have always been less dramatic. 

1) Without quarantine, the numbers exploded like run-away nuclear fission.  So many people use "exponential" improperly, but it is exponential growth.  A consequence of that is overwhelmed medical facilities and health care staff (who will be getting sick too).  This isn't a Katarina with a fixed number of victims, however big.  It keeps growing.

If we can put in dampening rods and reduce the multiplier to less than 1.0, then the growth is bounded.  That day was Feb. 18 in Wuhan. The same number of people might get this illness in their lifetime, but if it is spread out enough, then the health system can handle each patient better. 

PLEASE, EVERYONE, fight getting this disease like lives depend upon you!  They do.  Mine does.

2) Doctors will gain experience with the disease.  What works, what doesn't.  What to watch out for that will make things tough for any particular patient.   A patient that gets the disease today will get a lot of attention from doctors that don't yet know what works best.  A patient that gets the disease in a month will be just one of many, and may actually have fewer doctors available for care.  But the doctors will know better.  A patient that gets the disease in 6 months will almost certainly have a much better prognosis because the doctors will know better what to do.  Testing will be better.

3) Summer is coming.  Apparently human resistance to such viruses is weaker in cold, dry weather.  If you are lucky enough to avoid the illness for a couple of months, your body may fight it  off better.   

4) Potentially a vaccine may be developed.  Just as we have a flu vaccine, maybe someone will assure themselves of a Nobel Prize by coming up with a vaccine.

5) Government will respond to this threat.  I am not happy with what I've heard so far from all levels of government.  I am confident this will change, perhaps not as quickly as I want or the people need, but it will respond.   We may not build a hospital in 6 days, but we will get beds into the hospitals.  Testing procedures will be streamlined and test kits distributed.  Relevant medical information will get distributed.


I've focused a lot on the CFR, but consider the overall picture.  At least until the past couple of weeks, Wuhan was the hardest hit area.  The disease apparently spread widely before they got any kind of a handle on it.  The city of 11M has had 2,227 deaths in a bit over 2 months.   That's a lot (and it will rise), but that's a lot of survivors too.  I expect that today or tomorrow, they will have more discharges than existing patients.

My gut feeling is that this disease will far surpass Hurricane Katrina in US deaths.  It may well pass the death toll of the Galveston Hurricane of 1900.  God willing, I hope it won't approach the death toll in the US or the world of the 1918 flu epidemic.

[M T]

What the impacts are and what to do about it is an entirely different discussion. I'm actually coming to the conclusion that humanity might as well just stop even trying to contain it because it is so incredibly virulent and can hide so easily. I'm even beginning to wonder if it actually makes any sense to continue reporting cases, because this is just gonna cause more freakout


It would seem whether we sequester ourselves or take no precautions to avoid transmission, the end result is gonna be something really bad and exceptionally painful. Basically, I think akiddoc and I are on the same page.  We just sort of throw our hands up in the air, admit there are some things we as humans can't control, see what happens, and deal with the unavoidable consequences as they manifest.

I don't know that it will happen until we see Wuhan-style death numbers, but suppose we quarantine everyone, would that do any good?  If we're all going to someday get the disease, what good does it do?

In Wuhan (pop. 11M), the patient 0 got sick 1-Dec.  They noticed something going on in late December. (We're getting to that point, except that I believe it has spread much wider in the US because of  multiple infection sites & more travel.)   About 3 weeks later (17 Jan), they shut the city down.  About a month later (18 Feb) the number of patients in the hospital peaked (38,000 with 1500 deaths).   As of 1-Mar, all the severity indices continue to fall.   The deaths/(deaths + discharges) over the last 7 days is now just under 2%.  New confirmed infections yesterday was under 200, far below the 1600+ at the peak.   In China, outside of Wuhan, the numbers have always been less dramatic. 

1) Without quarantine, the numbers exploded like run-away nuclear fission.  So many people use "exponential" improperly, but it is exponential growth.  A consequence of that is overwhelmed medical facilities and health care staff (who will be getting sick too).  This isn't a Katarina with a fixed number of victims, however big.  It keeps growing.

If we can put in dampening rods and reduce the multiplier to less than 1.0, then the growth is bounded.  That day was Feb. 18 in Wuhan. The same number of people might get this illness in their lifetime, but if it is spread out enough, then the health system can handle each patient better. 

PLEASE, EVERYONE, fight getting this disease like lives depend upon you!  They do.  Mine does.

2) Doctors will gain experience with the disease.  What works, what doesn't.  What to watch out for that will make things tough for any particular patient.   A patient that gets the disease today will get a lot of attention from doctors that don't yet know what works best.  A patient that gets the disease in a month will be just one of many, and may actually have fewer doctors available for care.  But the doctors will know better.  A patient that gets the disease in 6 months will almost certainly have a much better prognosis because the doctors will know better what to do.  Testing will be better.

3) Summer is coming.  Apparently human resistance to such viruses is weaker in cold, dry weather.  If you are lucky enough to avoid the illness for a couple of months, your body may fight it  off better.   

4) Potentially a vaccine may be developed.  Just as we have a flu vaccine, maybe someone will assure themselves of a Nobel Prize by coming up with a vaccine.

5) Government will respond to this threat.  I am not happy with what I've heard so far from all levels of government.  I am confident this will change, perhaps not as quickly as I want or the people need, but it will respond.   We may not build a hospital in 6 days, but we will get beds into the hospitals.  Testing procedures will be streamlined and test kits distributed.  Relevant medical information will get distributed.


I've focused a lot on the CFR, but consider the overall picture.  At least until the past couple of weeks, Wuhan was the hardest hit area.  The disease apparently spread widely before they got any kind of a handle on it.  The city of 11M has had 2,227 deaths in a bit over 2 months.   That's a lot (and it will rise), but that's a lot of survivors too.  I expect that today or tomorrow, they will have more discharges than existing patients.

My gut feeling is that this disease will far surpass Hurricane Katrina in US deaths.  It may well pass the death toll of the Galveston Hurricane of 1900.  God willing, I hope it won't approach the death toll in the US or the world of the 1918 flu epidemic.