[BostonCard]

What the impacts are and what to do about it is an entirely different discussion. I'm actually coming to the conclusion that humanity might as well just stop even trying to contain it because it is so incredibly virulent and can hide so easily. I'm even beginning to wonder if it actually makes any sense to continue reporting cases, because this is just gonna cause more freakout.

You are right that we probably won't be able to contain it entirely.  The virus has a lot of features that will make it very hard to contain, particularly the fact that kids are minimally symptomatic, so it can easily spread amongst the kiddos in schools and daycares more or less undetected and then be transmitted to more vulnerable individuals, as well as the high transmissability, longish incubation period, etc, and the fact that it does not seem to have particularly unique symptoms.  For the public health officers at the front lines of trying to contain this the outbreak is a nightmare, I wish them the best of luck.

However, that doesn't mean that there isn't a very big advantage to slowing the spread as much as reasonably possible.  For one, it makes a big difference to the healthcare system as a whole whether the cases come all at once or bit by bit.  It is the difference between a stretched healthcare system and an overwhelmed healthcare system where we could literally be rationing ventilators and deciding whether you have to take someone of the ventilator in favor of someone else.  Moreover, slowing the spread buys time.  Working at breakneck pace, it is possible that an antiviral already in the pipeline (Gilead's remdesivir), which is about to enter clinical trials in patients with Covid-19, could work to reduce the severity of disease and decrease mortality.  Results won't be available anytime soon, but it's possible that Gilead has an answer within a year.  The second is that a vaccine is developed, and about a half a dozen companies are working on one (or, in GSK's case, providing technology to help others make one), and again, while it won't be ready immediately, it might be availble at some point in 2021.  Lastly, we don't know the seasonal effects on Covid-19 transmission, and it is possible that as warmer weather hits, the transmissibility will go down and that the epidemic will slow down on its own.

So, right now, we are buying time.

BC

[BostonCard]

What the impacts are and what to do about it is an entirely different discussion. I'm actually coming to the conclusion that humanity might as well just stop even trying to contain it because it is so incredibly virulent and can hide so easily. I'm even beginning to wonder if it actually makes any sense to continue reporting cases, because this is just gonna cause more freakout.

You are right that we probably won't be able to contain it entirely.  The virus has a lot of features that will make it very hard to contain, particularly the fact that kids are minimally symptomatic, so it can easily spread amongst the kiddos in schools and daycares more or less undetected and then be transmitted to more vulnerable individuals, as well as the high transmissability, longish incubation period, etc, and the fact that it does not seem to have particularly unique symptoms.  For the public health officers at the front lines of trying to contain this the outbreak is a nightmare, I wish them the best of luck.

However, that doesn't mean that there isn't a very big advantage to slowing the spread as much as reasonably possible.  For one, it makes a big difference to the healthcare system as a whole whether the cases come all at once or bit by bit.  It is the difference between a stretched healthcare system and an overwhelmed healthcare system where we could literally be rationing ventilators and deciding whether you have to take someone of the ventilator in favor of someone else.  Moreover, slowing the spread buys time.  Working at breakneck pace, it is possible that an antiviral already in the pipeline (Gilead's remdesivir), which is about to enter clinical trials in patients with Covid-19, could work to reduce the severity of disease and decrease mortality.  Results won't be available anytime soon, but it's possible that Gilead has an answer within a year.  The second is that a vaccine is developed, and about a half a dozen companies are working on one (or, in GSK's case, providing technology to help others make one), and again, while it won't be ready immediately, it might be availble at some point in 2021.  Lastly, we don't know the seasonal effects on Covid-19 transmission, and it is possible that as warmer weather hits, the transmissibility will go down and that the epidemic will slow down on its own.

So, right now, we are buying time.

BC