[M T]

The sick-humor silver lining of Santa Clara county (SCC) having 9 positives in Santa Clara county is that we know they've done 9 tests.  (presumably they've tested many close contacts, but I doubt they're going to tell us those numbers.) 

We can only HOPE (as they have not giving out this information) that SCC has gotten the full genome on the no-known-contact patients to identify
1) whether this is the same genome as SCC cases #1 & #2, so as to better inform the medical community whether they are releasing patients while still infectious
2) whether this is a genome from elsewhere, to better identify the source of infection.

It is kinda hard for me to understand why the genome would somehow be classified as personal information, so I can only suspect they have not released it for other reasons.  (The genome of some other cases  in California have been published.)

As far as I can tell, SCC Dept of Public Health's statement re victim #5, "The investigation of this case has just begun and more information will be shared as it becomes available" unfortunately appears to be of questionable value.

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For those who continue to hope that there were lots of undetected cases in China, read this article on that issue as reported from the head of the WHO-China Joint Mission.   I urge everyone to read the full World Health Organization's report of their 2-week mission in China.  I surely wish the CDC would read it.

When the virus started to spread in Guangdong — the province where the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began — worried people flooded fever clinics to be tested. Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed.

Transmission of the virus has subsided in Guangdong, and the number of positive tests at the fever clinics has declined; now only about 1 in 5,000 people tested at the fever clinics is positive for the virus, he said.When the virus started to spread in Guangdong — the province where the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began — worried people flooded fever clinics to be tested. Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed.

Transmission of the virus has subsided in Guangdong, and the number of positive tests at the fever clinics has declined; now only about 1 in 5,000 people tested at the fever clinics is positive for the virus, he said.

Aylward said that ... The case fatality rate — the percentage of known infected people who die — is between 2% and 4% in Hubei province, and 0.7% in other parts of China, he said.

The lower rate outside of Hubei is likely due to the draconian social distancing measures China has put in place to try to slow spread of the virus. Other parts of China have not had the brobdingnagian explosion of cases seen in Hubei, Aylward said.

And, I would add, the CFR was probably held down by widespread testing and tracking of contacts to get cases BEFORE symptoms showed up and before an exposed case could infect many more.  The patients were getting care (apparently in hospitals, NOT at home as in the US) from the very first stages.  Their outcomes were probably better than waiting for a rest home full of pneumonia-stage victims.

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Again I'll point out that the Chinese National Health Council guidance (in my link earlier) for wearing face masks was for HEALTHY individuals that were going to be where they might be exposed to illness (people in crowded places, indoor working environment, ...).    If they were sick, at least with this disease, they weren't out walking around!

Indeed, the WHO-China Joint Mission reported that (apparently in Hubei), as part of the controls, "Every citizen has to wear a mask in public."

[M T]

The sick-humor silver lining of Santa Clara county (SCC) having 9 positives in Santa Clara county is that we know they've done 9 tests.  (presumably they've tested many close contacts, but I doubt they're going to tell us those numbers.) 

We can only HOPE (as they have not giving out this information) that SCC has gotten the full genome on the no-known-contact patients to identify
1) whether this is the same genome as SCC cases #1 & #2, so as to better inform the medical community whether they are releasing patients while still infectious
2) whether this is a genome from elsewhere, to better identify the source of infection.

It is kinda hard for me to understand why the genome would somehow be classified as personal information, so I can only suspect they have not released it for other reasons.  (The genome of some other cases  in California have been published.)

As far as I can tell, SCC Dept of Public Health's statement re victim #5, "The investigation of this case has just begun and more information will be shared as it becomes available" unfortunately appears to be of questionable value.

---

For those who continue to hope that there were lots of undetected cases in China, read this article on that issue as reported from the head of the WHO-China Joint Mission.   I urge everyone to read the full World Health Organization's report of their 2-week mission in China.  I surely wish the CDC would read it.

When the virus started to spread in Guangdong — the province where the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began — worried people flooded fever clinics to be tested. Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed.

Transmission of the virus has subsided in Guangdong, and the number of positive tests at the fever clinics has declined; now only about 1 in 5,000 people tested at the fever clinics is positive for the virus, he said.When the virus started to spread in Guangdong — the province where the 2002-2003 SARS outbreak began — worried people flooded fever clinics to be tested. Of 320,000 tests performed, just under 0.5% were positive for the virus at the peak of transmission there, he said — which suggests that only 1 case out of 200 was being missed.

Transmission of the virus has subsided in Guangdong, and the number of positive tests at the fever clinics has declined; now only about 1 in 5,000 people tested at the fever clinics is positive for the virus, he said.

Aylward said that ... The case fatality rate — the percentage of known infected people who die — is between 2% and 4% in Hubei province, and 0.7% in other parts of China, he said.

The lower rate outside of Hubei is likely due to the draconian social distancing measures China has put in place to try to slow spread of the virus. Other parts of China have not had the brobdingnagian explosion of cases seen in Hubei, Aylward said.

And, I would add, the CFR was probably held down by widespread testing and tracking of contacts to get cases BEFORE symptoms showed up and before an exposed case could infect many more.  The patients were getting care (apparently in hospitals, NOT at home as in the US) from the very first stages.  Their outcomes were probably better than waiting for a rest home full of pneumonia-stage victims.

---

Again I'll point out that the Chinese National Health Council guidance (in my link earlier) for wearing face masks was for HEALTHY individuals that were going to be where they might be exposed to illness (people in crowded places, indoor working environment, ...).    If they were sick, at least with this disease, they weren't out walking around!

Indeed, the WHO-China Joint Mission reported that (apparently in Hubei), as part of the controls, "Every citizen has to wear a mask in public."