03-05-2020, 09:53 AM
(03-05-2020, 09:37 AM)stupac2 Wrote: Regarding the insouciance of doctors, one of my friends is an infectious disease doctor in Oakland and is so far at the "mildly intrigued" level on this virus. Mostly he thinks it's boring. Very normal "wash your hands, take normal precautions" advice. Not sure what that's worth, but it does seem like most medical professionals aren't super worried.Given the high mortality rates in places like Iran and Italy, where the virus has been transmitting for longer, is your friend's view that this is just a more morbid version of the flu? When I see mortality rates in the 10-15% range for folks in their 70s and 80s, that worries me a lot, even if my own chance of serious complications remains very low. And it seems like even at the very lowest end of the estimated mortality rate that I've seen (approx. .3-.4% vs. the 3.4% the WHO reported) would be very serious on a nationwide scale. That's double the mortality rate of the flu, and would be coupled with the flu such that treating facilities would be even more strapped to provide high quality care than ordinary. There's also no herd immunity, so the likelihood of many older individuals getting it would seem much higher than with flu strains, which have been circulating and mutating for decades.