[M T]

Things are getting a bit trickier now that there appears to be two strains of SARS-CoV-2.
https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-art...36/5775463

The raw numbers of cases reported are going to shed no light on what strains positive infected have.  

Apparently, the "S" strain is the one that initially transferred from animal to humans. Though it is still spreading, the "L" strain appears to have mutated once inside humans to be more ideally suited for human transmission and doing more damage. This could explain why some people have mild symptoms, and could explain the difference in severity between what is happening in South Korea vs. say Iran and Italy.

It's hard enough to figure out exactly what is happening with total data transparency. It's impossible by hiding it. The more transparency the better.  Washington is studying gene sequences to track what is going on. This is helping public health planners decide what steps to take. Absent this information they would be operating in the dark, probably not taking the most prudent measures, and making things worse.

In the GSAID display, the  older S-type are the bottom portion, while the L type are the ones in the upper 2/3s.  The Washington state cases are shown at the top of the S-type (earliest case 1/31, next in the data 2/20, latest 3/1).  (The authors suggest some patients may have both L and S.)

I haven't seen evidence yet that mild vs severe may be related to L vs S.  Maybe I'm naive but localities would likely be mostly one type.  If some country had all mild and another country had all severe cases, then I'd believe that.  I could believe the fatality rate may be different.
The authors suggest transmissibility may be different: "L type, which might be more aggressive and  spread more quickly."
Other than the Washington State cases, I don't see how many deaths are occurring with each type.  I would expect that data to be available somewhere.

Edit: i defer to the response in the link in the previous post (which I didn't see before I posted)

[M T]

Things are getting a bit trickier now that there appears to be two strains of SARS-CoV-2.
https://academic.oup.com/nsr/advance-art...36/5775463

The raw numbers of cases reported are going to shed no light on what strains positive infected have.  

Apparently, the "S" strain is the one that initially transferred from animal to humans. Though it is still spreading, the "L" strain appears to have mutated once inside humans to be more ideally suited for human transmission and doing more damage. This could explain why some people have mild symptoms, and could explain the difference in severity between what is happening in South Korea vs. say Iran and Italy.

It's hard enough to figure out exactly what is happening with total data transparency. It's impossible by hiding it. The more transparency the better.  Washington is studying gene sequences to track what is going on. This is helping public health planners decide what steps to take. Absent this information they would be operating in the dark, probably not taking the most prudent measures, and making things worse.

In the GSAID display, the  older S-type are the bottom portion, while the L type are the ones in the upper 2/3s.  The Washington state cases are shown at the top of the S-type (earliest case 1/31, next in the data 2/20, latest 3/1).  (The authors suggest some patients may have both L and S.)

I haven't seen evidence yet that mild vs severe may be related to L vs S.  Maybe I'm naive but localities would likely be mostly one type.  If some country had all mild and another country had all severe cases, then I'd believe that.  I could believe the fatality rate may be different.
The authors suggest transmissibility may be different: "L type, which might be more aggressive and  spread more quickly."
Other than the Washington State cases, I don't see how many deaths are occurring with each type.  I would expect that data to be available somewhere.

Edit: i defer to the response in the link in the previous post (which I didn't see before I posted)