I would strongly encourage everyone to read this thread from a reporter in Italy:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1236459870557102080[/tweet]
Remember: Italy had just 9 cases a bit over two weeks ago. Two weeks later, they are closing borders. I'm probably more prone to worry than the average person, but I would not generally think of myself as a chicken little alarmist type. Nevertheless:
I would encourage anyone reading this to stock up now for at least two months' worth of prescription drugs and any essential medicines. I don't see how there aren't significant supply chain disruptions in the coming weeks. Me personally, I'm also stocking up on enough basic essentials to get through a prolonged stretch (not just toilet paper and hand sanitizer, but things like cereals, beans and rice, canned soup, frozen fruit, etc.). Note that most of the places the virus hit early and where it spread widely (China, Italy, Iran, and South Korea) have now imposed lockdowns and quarantines at the city-to-regional level, lasting for weeks (China's are into their second month). I don't see how they're the last countries to have to resort to this. (And worst case scenario, you have saved your future self grocery shopping.)
We are more like Italy than we are like China in terms of the state's capacity for social control and the population's willingness to follow orders, and the Italian experience is beyond sobering. Our healthcare system is better, overall, we're wealthier, and we do not have as high a concentration of elderly among our population. But I imagine there will be pockets in this country that look more like Italy than not, and who's to say yours won't be one of them? (We also have very limited border control capacities within the United States, so it's not even clear whether we could pull off a geographic quarantine if we wanted to.)
Now is also the time to have this conversation with any elderly or high-risk relatives. Make sure they have what they need to withstand 4-6 weeks without leaving the house. Like a lot of Stanford alums, many of my older relatives are in the Bay Area, which has been higher risk earlier due to the nature of the spread, and after calm, lengthy conversations with me over the past several weeks, they've already been staying in for the past week, and I've been checking in on them by phone daily or near daily because social distancing == alienating social isolation.
BTW: Some folks joked that San Francisco declared an emergency before there was even a diagnosed case, but yesterday the city blanketed our neighborhood with door tags in four language explaining COVID-19, what to do and not to do, and how to get more information. Every municipality in the country should be doing that right now. I am confident it would not have happened this swiftly if they hadn't made discretionary manpower and funding available to be directed towards these kinds of efforts.
BTW: Of all people, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has had one of the more level-headed and thoughtful explanations of what we (i.e., individuals, state and local governments, the federal government, etc.) should be doing right now:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1236473220783636481[/tweet]
Sorry for the alarm. I really hope this post ages poorly and we can all mock my alarmist tendencies in a few weeks' time.
[tweet]https://twitter.com/DellAnnaLuca/status/1236459870557102080[/tweet]
Remember: Italy had just 9 cases a bit over two weeks ago. Two weeks later, they are closing borders. I'm probably more prone to worry than the average person, but I would not generally think of myself as a chicken little alarmist type. Nevertheless:
I would encourage anyone reading this to stock up now for at least two months' worth of prescription drugs and any essential medicines. I don't see how there aren't significant supply chain disruptions in the coming weeks. Me personally, I'm also stocking up on enough basic essentials to get through a prolonged stretch (not just toilet paper and hand sanitizer, but things like cereals, beans and rice, canned soup, frozen fruit, etc.). Note that most of the places the virus hit early and where it spread widely (China, Italy, Iran, and South Korea) have now imposed lockdowns and quarantines at the city-to-regional level, lasting for weeks (China's are into their second month). I don't see how they're the last countries to have to resort to this. (And worst case scenario, you have saved your future self grocery shopping.)
We are more like Italy than we are like China in terms of the state's capacity for social control and the population's willingness to follow orders, and the Italian experience is beyond sobering. Our healthcare system is better, overall, we're wealthier, and we do not have as high a concentration of elderly among our population. But I imagine there will be pockets in this country that look more like Italy than not, and who's to say yours won't be one of them? (We also have very limited border control capacities within the United States, so it's not even clear whether we could pull off a geographic quarantine if we wanted to.)
Now is also the time to have this conversation with any elderly or high-risk relatives. Make sure they have what they need to withstand 4-6 weeks without leaving the house. Like a lot of Stanford alums, many of my older relatives are in the Bay Area, which has been higher risk earlier due to the nature of the spread, and after calm, lengthy conversations with me over the past several weeks, they've already been staying in for the past week, and I've been checking in on them by phone daily or near daily because social distancing == alienating social isolation.
BTW: Some folks joked that San Francisco declared an emergency before there was even a diagnosed case, but yesterday the city blanketed our neighborhood with door tags in four language explaining COVID-19, what to do and not to do, and how to get more information. Every municipality in the country should be doing that right now. I am confident it would not have happened this swiftly if they hadn't made discretionary manpower and funding available to be directed towards these kinds of efforts.
BTW: Of all people, former FDA commissioner Scott Gottlieb has had one of the more level-headed and thoughtful explanations of what we (i.e., individuals, state and local governments, the federal government, etc.) should be doing right now:
[tweet]https://twitter.com/ScottGottliebMD/status/1236473220783636481[/tweet]
Sorry for the alarm. I really hope this post ages poorly and we can all mock my alarmist tendencies in a few weeks' time.