[BostonCard]

It appears to me that China responded more quickly than the US.  (IMO, the US opened the barn door and continue to send the horses out to graze on their own.)



1 Dec - patient 0 gets symptoms.

8 Dec - patient 0 seeks medical care.

27 Dec - Dr. Zhang reports a cluster (4) of unusual pneumonia cases

30 Dec - active case finding starts

31 Dec - WHO is notified   (12 new cases/day)

1 Jan - a suspect hotspot is closed

7 Jan -  Virus identified

13 Jan - test kits become available

20 Jan -  WHO reports 278 conf. cases in Wuhan (60 new), 6 deaths

23 Jan - Wuhan shut down

24 Jan - 15 other cities shut down

18 Feb - maximum number of patients (38,000) in hospitals (NOTE: In China, all those with positive tests were put in hospitals.)

I am not at all suggesting that the United States' response has been appropriate.  At all.  Just that I would not look at China's response as a model.  For example, you forgot several things in your timeline:

30 Dec: Li Wenliang posts to a WeChat group of medical school classmates about a mysterious illness that had stricken seven patients.  One of his classmates responded "So freightening.  Is SARS coming again?"
30 Dec: Overnight, Li was summoned by the local health authority asking why he had shared the info.
31 Dec: Local police announce that they were investigating eight people for spreading rumors about the outbreak.
2 Jan: Li was forced to sign a statement that he made the whole thing up and that he would stop spreading "dangerous rumors".'
6 Jan: Li noticed that one of his colleagues likely had the infection on a scan (I assume CT scan).  He was ordered not to report it.
7 Jan: An infected patient was operated on, spreading the disease to 14 medical workers.
15 Jan: Guan Yi, a respected professor of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong, having seen no new cases reported by officials in Wuhan said "If there are no new cases in the next few days, the outbreak is over,”
19 Jan: Wuhan went ahead with a massive annual potluck banquet for 40,000 families from a city precinct (to quote Teejers, AYFKM?)
20 Jan: More than a month after the first symptoms spread, Dr. Zhong Nanshan (semiretired epidemiologist who was instrumental in the fight against SARS) announced in an interview on state television that there was no doubt that the coronavirus spread with human contact. Worse, one patient had infected at least 14 medical personnel.  This was the first Chinese acknowledgement that there was person to person spread of the virus, even though that day there were 278 confirmed cases and 6 deaths.
7 Feb: Li Wenliang dies

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/world...virus.html
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/a...sm/606922/

No one can say for sure what would have happened had Chinese officials not tried to hide the epidemic.  Maybe it still manages to spread widely, maybe it spreads but more slowly, maybe it gets contained within Wuhan.  But I find it unconscionable that doctors trying to sound the alarm were silenced, and I honestly don't get how one can praise the Chinese response to the virus as if the "Chinese response" began on Jan 20, 2020.

BC

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All of Italy is now under lockdown. I suspect this is just the first of a number of dominoes to follow.

At least they had the decency to wait until the stock market ended trading for the day.
(I should be clear that I am engaging in a little gallows humor; obviously the coronavirus is very serious and hundreds of people have died from coronavirus in Italy, which is a tragedy.)

BC

[BostonCard]

It appears to me that China responded more quickly than the US.  (IMO, the US opened the barn door and continue to send the horses out to graze on their own.)



1 Dec - patient 0 gets symptoms.

8 Dec - patient 0 seeks medical care.

27 Dec - Dr. Zhang reports a cluster (4) of unusual pneumonia cases

30 Dec - active case finding starts

31 Dec - WHO is notified   (12 new cases/day)

1 Jan - a suspect hotspot is closed

7 Jan -  Virus identified

13 Jan - test kits become available

20 Jan -  WHO reports 278 conf. cases in Wuhan (60 new), 6 deaths

23 Jan - Wuhan shut down

24 Jan - 15 other cities shut down

18 Feb - maximum number of patients (38,000) in hospitals (NOTE: In China, all those with positive tests were put in hospitals.)

I am not at all suggesting that the United States' response has been appropriate.  At all.  Just that I would not look at China's response as a model.  For example, you forgot several things in your timeline:

30 Dec: Li Wenliang posts to a WeChat group of medical school classmates about a mysterious illness that had stricken seven patients.  One of his classmates responded "So freightening.  Is SARS coming again?"
30 Dec: Overnight, Li was summoned by the local health authority asking why he had shared the info.
31 Dec: Local police announce that they were investigating eight people for spreading rumors about the outbreak.
2 Jan: Li was forced to sign a statement that he made the whole thing up and that he would stop spreading "dangerous rumors".'
6 Jan: Li noticed that one of his colleagues likely had the infection on a scan (I assume CT scan).  He was ordered not to report it.
7 Jan: An infected patient was operated on, spreading the disease to 14 medical workers.
15 Jan: Guan Yi, a respected professor of infectious diseases at the University of Hong Kong, having seen no new cases reported by officials in Wuhan said "If there are no new cases in the next few days, the outbreak is over,”
19 Jan: Wuhan went ahead with a massive annual potluck banquet for 40,000 families from a city precinct (to quote Teejers, AYFKM?)
20 Jan: More than a month after the first symptoms spread, Dr. Zhong Nanshan (semiretired epidemiologist who was instrumental in the fight against SARS) announced in an interview on state television that there was no doubt that the coronavirus spread with human contact. Worse, one patient had infected at least 14 medical personnel.  This was the first Chinese acknowledgement that there was person to person spread of the virus, even though that day there were 278 confirmed cases and 6 deaths.
7 Feb: Li Wenliang dies

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/02/01/world...virus.html
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/a...sm/606922/

No one can say for sure what would have happened had Chinese officials not tried to hide the epidemic.  Maybe it still manages to spread widely, maybe it spreads but more slowly, maybe it gets contained within Wuhan.  But I find it unconscionable that doctors trying to sound the alarm were silenced, and I honestly don't get how one can praise the Chinese response to the virus as if the "Chinese response" began on Jan 20, 2020.

BC

---

All of Italy is now under lockdown. I suspect this is just the first of a number of dominoes to follow.

At least they had the decency to wait until the stock market ended trading for the day.
(I should be clear that I am engaging in a little gallows humor; obviously the coronavirus is very serious and hundreds of people have died from coronavirus in Italy, which is a tragedy.)

BC