[BostonCard]

The 10:1 ratio of hospitalized patients to deaths is about what you would expect, and doesn't suggest that Italy is inadequately set up to care for all hospitalized patients (though there are anecdotal reports of running out of ventilators).  However, pretty much everywhere else I've seen a 20% hospitalization rate, so 47% of patients being admitted to the hospital strikes me as an undercount of milder (non-hospitalized) patients, by at least a factor of 2.

By way of comparison, South Korea has tested 200,000 people and found 7500 positive; they have had 53 deaths.

Based on the strong age gradient, I can believe the death rate would be higher in Italy than in South Korea, but I'd be surprised if it was an order of magnitude higher.The median age in Italy is 45.5, compared to 41.8 in South Korea.

BC

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Did I watch the same conference? One million test kits available today; four million by the end of the week.

I'd have a little more faith if they hadn't promised a million test kits available last week.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archi...us/607597/

On Monday, Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, estimated that “by the end of this week, close to a million tests will be able to be performed” in the United States. On Wednesday, Vice President Mike Pence promised that “roughly 1.5 million tests” would be available this week.

The article is dated as of Friday.  It states:

California claims the highest testing capacity of any state, and has tested the most individuals so far. As of yesterday afternoon, it had tested 516 people, with 53 positive cases, a spokesperson for the Department of Health told us. The department now has the capacity to test 6,000 people every day, and it expects that capacity to expand to 7,400 people a day starting today, the spokesperson said.

Even at 10,000 tests per day in California, and extrapolating it to the whole of the US, I only get to 80,000 tests per day.  Not sure how you go from that to 4 million tests.  And even within California, there appears to be a chasm between the number of people tested (a shade over 500) and the capacity to test, which makes me wonder if the availability of test kits is only a small part of the story.

I would be shocked if by the end of the week we have even a fraction of the 1 million tests "available" translated into people tested.

BC

[BostonCard]

The 10:1 ratio of hospitalized patients to deaths is about what you would expect, and doesn't suggest that Italy is inadequately set up to care for all hospitalized patients (though there are anecdotal reports of running out of ventilators).  However, pretty much everywhere else I've seen a 20% hospitalization rate, so 47% of patients being admitted to the hospital strikes me as an undercount of milder (non-hospitalized) patients, by at least a factor of 2.

By way of comparison, South Korea has tested 200,000 people and found 7500 positive; they have had 53 deaths.

Based on the strong age gradient, I can believe the death rate would be higher in Italy than in South Korea, but I'd be surprised if it was an order of magnitude higher.The median age in Italy is 45.5, compared to 41.8 in South Korea.

BC

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Did I watch the same conference? One million test kits available today; four million by the end of the week.

I'd have a little more faith if they hadn't promised a million test kits available last week.

https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archi...us/607597/

On Monday, Stephen Hahn, the commissioner of the Food and Drug Administration, estimated that “by the end of this week, close to a million tests will be able to be performed” in the United States. On Wednesday, Vice President Mike Pence promised that “roughly 1.5 million tests” would be available this week.

The article is dated as of Friday.  It states:

California claims the highest testing capacity of any state, and has tested the most individuals so far. As of yesterday afternoon, it had tested 516 people, with 53 positive cases, a spokesperson for the Department of Health told us. The department now has the capacity to test 6,000 people every day, and it expects that capacity to expand to 7,400 people a day starting today, the spokesperson said.

Even at 10,000 tests per day in California, and extrapolating it to the whole of the US, I only get to 80,000 tests per day.  Not sure how you go from that to 4 million tests.  And even within California, there appears to be a chasm between the number of people tested (a shade over 500) and the capacity to test, which makes me wonder if the availability of test kits is only a small part of the story.

I would be shocked if by the end of the week we have even a fraction of the 1 million tests "available" translated into people tested.

BC