03-11-2020, 09:45 AM
I believe it is important to recognize the the efforts made on the "front lines" are very important. The county health offices, physicians and health care staff at hospitals, lab techs, etc. are what will hopefully slow this down and prevent overload. The "troops in contact" and the local and state officials (tactical leaders) will be the ones who win this battle (or not). We are going to do what we can with what we have or can scrape together in the short term.
Lots of decisions will be made with incomplete information in the presence of differing goals and contradictory advice. My friends in Italy say the failure of the initial lockdown in the north was mostly due to people not taking it seriously and going on as if it weren't there or didn't apply to them. The second country-wide lockdown actually introduced some panic in areas with no or small numbers of sick people, because they feared for the food supply. Now that everybody is pretty sure the grocery stores will remain open, things are calming down. We here need to avoid both these problems as much as possible.
There is going to be significant economic fallout from this disease outbreak no matter what is done to mitigate it. May levers normally open to stimulate the economy won't even work, as people aren't going to be in a rush to start new efforts in the presence of great uncertainty. Hiring lots of new people when "work from home" is the norm isn't happening.
Lots of decisions will be made with incomplete information in the presence of differing goals and contradictory advice. My friends in Italy say the failure of the initial lockdown in the north was mostly due to people not taking it seriously and going on as if it weren't there or didn't apply to them. The second country-wide lockdown actually introduced some panic in areas with no or small numbers of sick people, because they feared for the food supply. Now that everybody is pretty sure the grocery stores will remain open, things are calming down. We here need to avoid both these problems as much as possible.
There is going to be significant economic fallout from this disease outbreak no matter what is done to mitigate it. May levers normally open to stimulate the economy won't even work, as people aren't going to be in a rush to start new efforts in the presence of great uncertainty. Hiring lots of new people when "work from home" is the norm isn't happening.
