[M T]

A really GOOD article.   I suggest everyone read it.

He explains pretty well the impact of health measures taken, and how the statistics are delayed measures of the spread.
He shows stats that dramatically show how China's quick & drastic actions resulted in a much better outcome than other countries.

He uses case count AND death count to estimate the number of cases (and eventual CFR), in multiple countries.
He uses a model to suggest that a 1-day delay in instituting controls (here, social distancing) may cause a 40% increase in cases.
He points out that a 40% increase will mean a much higher increase in number of deaths if the health care system is overloaded.

I have a few minor quibbles, but I won't voice them now as it would detract from the message.

interesting read on exponential spread and how it was contained in some regions of China but so far not well elsewhere

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavir...d3d9cd99ca

[M T]

A really GOOD article.   I suggest everyone read it.

He explains pretty well the impact of health measures taken, and how the statistics are delayed measures of the spread.
He shows stats that dramatically show how China's quick & drastic actions resulted in a much better outcome than other countries.

He uses case count AND death count to estimate the number of cases (and eventual CFR), in multiple countries.
He uses a model to suggest that a 1-day delay in instituting controls (here, social distancing) may cause a 40% increase in cases.
He points out that a 40% increase will mean a much higher increase in number of deaths if the health care system is overloaded.

I have a few minor quibbles, but I won't voice them now as it would detract from the message.

interesting read on exponential spread and how it was contained in some regions of China but so far not well elsewhere

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavir...d3d9cd99ca