[Snorlax94]

I wonder if there are some of you who would be prepared to provide a summary of things to do or think about as we go about our daily lives. Some of you are doctors or researchers that can provide some tips.Anything I should be worried about the store running out of (as of yet, we have not joined the CostCo swarm)? And, as I asked before, do I need to worry about our savings or IRA?
-m.

1) In terms of "things to do", I think the best posts on practices were by akiddoc on the top of page 6 starting with
"As a physician on the front line, I have a few comments"

And 2006alum forwards tips from a molecular biologist about 3/4 of the way down page 15 starting with
"FWIW, congestion is an uncommon COVID-19 symptom."

In particular, I have been taking akiddoc's advice to get tons of sleep to heart -- many of my previous colds and flus came after being sleep deprived.

2)  In terms of supplies, I don't think it's about medical advice. If you have not been to a Costco or Target recently, you are in for a big surprise. About 2 weeks ago, when I went to CostCo, I noticed there was little TP, and no hand sanitizer, no rice, no dry pasta multi-packs, no quinoa, but plenty of everything else, and I have never seen those items in stock again. 1 week ago when I went to Target, on Sunday night the store looked looted but by Tuesday morning around opening it looked well-stocked with almost everything. Yesterday when I went to Target in the morning, it looked looted. Even frozen foods now were running out. 4-packs of TP were in stock, but larger packages of many paper products were out. Regardless of whether all this buying has a rational basis, it is difficult to buy supplies now in the South Bay.

3) In terms of the stock market, I mean, who knows. One of my degrees in Economics and I've been watching the markets and frequently texting an ibanker friend, and I have felt the markets were crazy not adequately factoring in the virus a couple of weeks ago. From my perspective, I think the market is getting close to reflecting to the relative upside to the relative downside -- which is not to say I don't think the markets won't move -- I think it's getting closer to where it's 50/50 that the S&P 500 could go up 1,000 in 2 years and could go down 1,000.  But I wouldn't panic sell in these markets. I think it's unlikely that this will be a zombie apocalypse where the world enters a global recession for 10 years. If your horizon until retirement is more than 10 years, I would't recommend selling now, but, for example, if you felt your portfolio was weighted too heavily toward stocks and international stocks, you could specify your future contributions for the next year to go more toward lower-risk investments. From an investment perspective, separate from the tragic human toll, even if the US is capable of keeping US deaths to under 10,000, I would be happily surprised if there aren't MANY cases like Italy's (or worse -- like Iran's) in the next year or so. A leadership role by the US to stem this crisis, along with a generosity by the US people to help poorer nations for the good of the world could help reduce the tragic global impact, but unfortunately, I do not think this is coming, so I'd think there's >50% chance the virus will rage across the world for the next year+ . I have been keeping some funds on the sidelines looking for a buy opportunity, and I do not think that time has yet come.

BTW, I don't get why people are stocking up on food and water so much. It's always handy to have some water in case of an earthquake, but I'm not aware of anyplace in the world hit by the virus where people could no longer get water by simply turning a faucet. I could see having several week's supply of food especially if one has a family to care for, but I can't even fathom a scenario where people in CA need to stock up on more than 8 weeks of food or a year of TP. Last I checked, CA produces more than half of the fresh produce for North America and was the #1 producer of even beef. It might get difficult to get food for a brief while during a lock down if transportation is restricted, but I expect there will be plenty of fresh food in California. (In the US, I could see more significant short-term disruptions in places like Hawaii or Alaska). If 99-99.9% of people under 50 survive, there will be plenty of people to pick crops and keep the water running.

[Snorlax94]

I wonder if there are some of you who would be prepared to provide a summary of things to do or think about as we go about our daily lives. Some of you are doctors or researchers that can provide some tips.Anything I should be worried about the store running out of (as of yet, we have not joined the CostCo swarm)? And, as I asked before, do I need to worry about our savings or IRA?
-m.

1) In terms of "things to do", I think the best posts on practices were by akiddoc on the top of page 6 starting with
"As a physician on the front line, I have a few comments"

And 2006alum forwards tips from a molecular biologist about 3/4 of the way down page 15 starting with
"FWIW, congestion is an uncommon COVID-19 symptom."

In particular, I have been taking akiddoc's advice to get tons of sleep to heart -- many of my previous colds and flus came after being sleep deprived.

2)  In terms of supplies, I don't think it's about medical advice. If you have not been to a Costco or Target recently, you are in for a big surprise. About 2 weeks ago, when I went to CostCo, I noticed there was little TP, and no hand sanitizer, no rice, no dry pasta multi-packs, no quinoa, but plenty of everything else, and I have never seen those items in stock again. 1 week ago when I went to Target, on Sunday night the store looked looted but by Tuesday morning around opening it looked well-stocked with almost everything. Yesterday when I went to Target in the morning, it looked looted. Even frozen foods now were running out. 4-packs of TP were in stock, but larger packages of many paper products were out. Regardless of whether all this buying has a rational basis, it is difficult to buy supplies now in the South Bay.

3) In terms of the stock market, I mean, who knows. One of my degrees in Economics and I've been watching the markets and frequently texting an ibanker friend, and I have felt the markets were crazy not adequately factoring in the virus a couple of weeks ago. From my perspective, I think the market is getting close to reflecting to the relative upside to the relative downside -- which is not to say I don't think the markets won't move -- I think it's getting closer to where it's 50/50 that the S&P 500 could go up 1,000 in 2 years and could go down 1,000.  But I wouldn't panic sell in these markets. I think it's unlikely that this will be a zombie apocalypse where the world enters a global recession for 10 years. If your horizon until retirement is more than 10 years, I would't recommend selling now, but, for example, if you felt your portfolio was weighted too heavily toward stocks and international stocks, you could specify your future contributions for the next year to go more toward lower-risk investments. From an investment perspective, separate from the tragic human toll, even if the US is capable of keeping US deaths to under 10,000, I would be happily surprised if there aren't MANY cases like Italy's (or worse -- like Iran's) in the next year or so. A leadership role by the US to stem this crisis, along with a generosity by the US people to help poorer nations for the good of the world could help reduce the tragic global impact, but unfortunately, I do not think this is coming, so I'd think there's >50% chance the virus will rage across the world for the next year+ . I have been keeping some funds on the sidelines looking for a buy opportunity, and I do not think that time has yet come.

BTW, I don't get why people are stocking up on food and water so much. It's always handy to have some water in case of an earthquake, but I'm not aware of anyplace in the world hit by the virus where people could no longer get water by simply turning a faucet. I could see having several week's supply of food especially if one has a family to care for, but I can't even fathom a scenario where people in CA need to stock up on more than 8 weeks of food or a year of TP. Last I checked, CA produces more than half of the fresh produce for North America and was the #1 producer of even beef. It might get difficult to get food for a brief while during a lock down if transportation is restricted, but I expect there will be plenty of fresh food in California. (In the US, I could see more significant short-term disruptions in places like Hawaii or Alaska). If 99-99.9% of people under 50 survive, there will be plenty of people to pick crops and keep the water running.