[BostonCard]

This seems like as good a post as any describing the epidemiology of Covid-19 and its implications:



https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavir...d3d9cd99ca



Some bottom lines:

With that number, you can calculate the number of true cases. If the Bay Area has 86 cases today, it is likely that the true number is ~600.

Good point about the CFR here (as it has been a bit of a contentious issue in this thread:

The two ways you can calculate the fatality rate is Deaths/Total Cases and Death/Closed Cases. The first one is likely to be an underestimate, because lots of open cases can still end up in death. The second is an overestimate, because it’s likely that deaths are closed quicker than recoveries.

What I did was look at how both evolve over time. Both of these numbers will converge to the same result once all cases are closed, so if you project past trends to the future, you can make a guess on what the final fatality rate will be.

This is what you see in the data. China’s fatality rate is now between 3.6% and 6.1%. If you project that in the future, it looks like it converges towards ~3.8%-4%. This is double the current estimate, and 30 times worse than the flu.

Note, this does not include cases that went undiagnosed.



Some sobering predictions:



And lastly, on social distancing:







BC

[BostonCard]

This seems like as good a post as any describing the epidemiology of Covid-19 and its implications:



https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavir...d3d9cd99ca



Some bottom lines:

With that number, you can calculate the number of true cases. If the Bay Area has 86 cases today, it is likely that the true number is ~600.

Good point about the CFR here (as it has been a bit of a contentious issue in this thread:

The two ways you can calculate the fatality rate is Deaths/Total Cases and Death/Closed Cases. The first one is likely to be an underestimate, because lots of open cases can still end up in death. The second is an overestimate, because it’s likely that deaths are closed quicker than recoveries.

What I did was look at how both evolve over time. Both of these numbers will converge to the same result once all cases are closed, so if you project past trends to the future, you can make a guess on what the final fatality rate will be.

This is what you see in the data. China’s fatality rate is now between 3.6% and 6.1%. If you project that in the future, it looks like it converges towards ~3.8%-4%. This is double the current estimate, and 30 times worse than the flu.

Note, this does not include cases that went undiagnosed.



Some sobering predictions:



And lastly, on social distancing:







BC