[Goose]

The Feb 24 US-China Joint Mission final report indicated

According to preliminary data from Guangzhou CDC as of 20 February, virus can initially be detected in upper respiratory samples 1-2 days prior to symptom onset

However, I believe that is updated by newer data.

<snip>

Thanks M T! From what you have presented, it appears that the "n" in my question is in the 1-2 range, but there are some people who are shedding virus (and would test positive) that never experience symptoms. It is good to see some hard data that is based on actual measurements of a significant number of cases. The mean incubation period being about 8 days is also useful. It seems almost certain that there is pre-symptomatic transmission, although the mean length of this interval should be on the order of "n", or 1-2 days. No way to to avoid that except some form of mandatory social distancing.

The graphs on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ clearly show the exponential increase in total cases. We are still in a situation where there are many unknowns, and unfortunately it will play out over what will seem like a very long time.

[Goose]

The Feb 24 US-China Joint Mission final report indicated

According to preliminary data from Guangzhou CDC as of 20 February, virus can initially be detected in upper respiratory samples 1-2 days prior to symptom onset

However, I believe that is updated by newer data.

<snip>

Thanks M T! From what you have presented, it appears that the "n" in my question is in the 1-2 range, but there are some people who are shedding virus (and would test positive) that never experience symptoms. It is good to see some hard data that is based on actual measurements of a significant number of cases. The mean incubation period being about 8 days is also useful. It seems almost certain that there is pre-symptomatic transmission, although the mean length of this interval should be on the order of "n", or 1-2 days. No way to to avoid that except some form of mandatory social distancing.

The graphs on https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/ clearly show the exponential increase in total cases. We are still in a situation where there are many unknowns, and unfortunately it will play out over what will seem like a very long time.