[burger]

I think this is a good example of an analysis being done with too little data to be useful.  Because of country differences in testing frequency, containment, etc., it's somewhere between misleading and totally wrong to compare case loads between countries. 

A far better comparison would involve comparing rate of spread in the same cities/countries at different times of year.  But that's going to be contaminated by containment measures that are going to place as well as herd immunity.  So I'm skeptical that we'll be able to answer this question with any rigor in the near future.

[burger]

I think this is a good example of an analysis being done with too little data to be useful.  Because of country differences in testing frequency, containment, etc., it's somewhere between misleading and totally wrong to compare case loads between countries. 

A far better comparison would involve comparing rate of spread in the same cities/countries at different times of year.  But that's going to be contaminated by containment measures that are going to place as well as herd immunity.  So I'm skeptical that we'll be able to answer this question with any rigor in the near future.