[BostonCard]

Exactly.  In developing nations the death rate will approach the fraction of patients who require critical care.  So, you are probably looking at about a 5% mortality, not a

SEIR predicts that a virus with an R0 of 2.2 or so will eventually infect about 80% of the population of left unchecked.

Back of the envelope calculation for a population of 1.4 billion is about 1 billion infected and 50 million deaths.  If the fraction of asymptomatic individuals is higher you might be looking at "only" 10-20 million deaths.

BC

[BostonCard]

Exactly.  In developing nations the death rate will approach the fraction of patients who require critical care.  So, you are probably looking at about a 5% mortality, not a

SEIR predicts that a virus with an R0 of 2.2 or so will eventually infect about 80% of the population of left unchecked.

Back of the envelope calculation for a population of 1.4 billion is about 1 billion infected and 50 million deaths.  If the fraction of asymptomatic individuals is higher you might be looking at "only" 10-20 million deaths.

BC