[Mick]

Last week of February, we were making contingency plans.  For two weeks, we waited and watched.  In 48 hours we got everybody out of Dodge, so to speak.  I flew home from DC to SJ on 3/13, wearing my N95 and hoping I made it on time.

The point is not political. It's that this has come with such speed that society is still in a state of shock. Reminiscent of 9'11, I don't think the event has been fully assimilated yet - not even close. 

I don't share your pessimism. A society as resourceful and resilient as this one will cope. But I don't think we're returning to 'normal' any time soon. In fact, 'normal' is going to be considerably different - better in some ways, worse in others, but very, very different. The bottom line is that herd immunity isn't going to be acquired any time soon (making hash of the original plan to isolate the elderly and endangered, and let nature take its course with the rest), vaccination is a long time in the future, and then outbreaks will re-occur.

We are dealing with a transforming event, and no one as yet knows how.

I'm pessimistic because our economy is a finely tuned engine and we've already extended ourselves to extend the booming economy.  Understand that what we've done hasn't been to slow the economy, or restrict it...it's been stopped in its tracks, except for a few essential industries.

The layoffs we've seen are the tip of the iceberg.  The last Goldman Sachs estimate I saw was a 6% contraction in GDP.  If it's only twice that, we'll be exceedingly fortunate.  Kiplinger says a 4% contraction.  These are pipe dreams.

Consumers are to the economy what voters are to politics.  In sum, they are the only engine that matters, the lever that turns all business and government spending.  If people can't buy, we cease to function.  And if they can't buy for long, both the people who buy and the businesses who sell to them and build for them are well and truly f'd.

Every day we wait increases the odds of this country not being able to bounce back fully.  I don't think we have the resources, and based upon what I've seen from the millenials -- even though I have two of my own and 15 among my employees -- I'm not sanguine about their ability to restart the country, from any perspective, including financial, emotional, physical.

[Mick]

Last week of February, we were making contingency plans.  For two weeks, we waited and watched.  In 48 hours we got everybody out of Dodge, so to speak.  I flew home from DC to SJ on 3/13, wearing my N95 and hoping I made it on time.

The point is not political. It's that this has come with such speed that society is still in a state of shock. Reminiscent of 9'11, I don't think the event has been fully assimilated yet - not even close. 

I don't share your pessimism. A society as resourceful and resilient as this one will cope. But I don't think we're returning to 'normal' any time soon. In fact, 'normal' is going to be considerably different - better in some ways, worse in others, but very, very different. The bottom line is that herd immunity isn't going to be acquired any time soon (making hash of the original plan to isolate the elderly and endangered, and let nature take its course with the rest), vaccination is a long time in the future, and then outbreaks will re-occur.

We are dealing with a transforming event, and no one as yet knows how.

I'm pessimistic because our economy is a finely tuned engine and we've already extended ourselves to extend the booming economy.  Understand that what we've done hasn't been to slow the economy, or restrict it...it's been stopped in its tracks, except for a few essential industries.

The layoffs we've seen are the tip of the iceberg.  The last Goldman Sachs estimate I saw was a 6% contraction in GDP.  If it's only twice that, we'll be exceedingly fortunate.  Kiplinger says a 4% contraction.  These are pipe dreams.

Consumers are to the economy what voters are to politics.  In sum, they are the only engine that matters, the lever that turns all business and government spending.  If people can't buy, we cease to function.  And if they can't buy for long, both the people who buy and the businesses who sell to them and build for them are well and truly f'd.

Every day we wait increases the odds of this country not being able to bounce back fully.  I don't think we have the resources, and based upon what I've seen from the millenials -- even though I have two of my own and 15 among my employees -- I'm not sanguine about their ability to restart the country, from any perspective, including financial, emotional, physical.