[magnus]

Then again,  if not for a reduction in travel from China, the numbers could have been much worse... especially in the West Coast,  if more seeds had landed.

Probably not. I feel very fortunate to live in the Bay Area, where the counties implemented the first Shelter In Place in the country. It’s clear the public health officers shut down when the case numbers and exponential growth rate dictated it was necessary. If that had happened two weeks earlier, it’s clear they would have started two weeks earlier. They were observing the data — probably for a very long time — and had the character and competence to make a science-based decision when necessary.

It's not that it would have started earlier.   It's that there'd be more fires to put out, which means more chance for one of the seeds to hit a vulnerable population and explode.   Even if it did mean an earlier seed, given the amount of testing at the time (basically none), not sure it would have been spotted until "critical mass"

[magnus]

Then again,  if not for a reduction in travel from China, the numbers could have been much worse... especially in the West Coast,  if more seeds had landed.

Probably not. I feel very fortunate to live in the Bay Area, where the counties implemented the first Shelter In Place in the country. It’s clear the public health officers shut down when the case numbers and exponential growth rate dictated it was necessary. If that had happened two weeks earlier, it’s clear they would have started two weeks earlier. They were observing the data — probably for a very long time — and had the character and competence to make a science-based decision when necessary.

It's not that it would have started earlier.   It's that there'd be more fires to put out, which means more chance for one of the seeds to hit a vulnerable population and explode.   Even if it did mean an earlier seed, given the amount of testing at the time (basically none), not sure it would have been spotted until "critical mass"