04-15-2020, 11:20 AM
https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.aba9757
More "sparks" from travel make not a lick of a difference if there is already a flame going on (community transmission). The fatal flaw was to assume that you can impose a travel ban and that alone can take care of anything. A travel ban in conjunction with other significant measures to reduce transmission (as was undertaken in Taiwan and South Korea) can make a difference, but a travel ban by itself is a bit like a football play where the left side of the offensive line blocked well, but the right side stood around like topiary as the QB got sacked. And we have people saying "look, we imposed a travel ban!" while the country is being overwhelmed because all of the other things that were done poorly.
BC
Quote:Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.
More "sparks" from travel make not a lick of a difference if there is already a flame going on (community transmission). The fatal flaw was to assume that you can impose a travel ban and that alone can take care of anything. A travel ban in conjunction with other significant measures to reduce transmission (as was undertaken in Taiwan and South Korea) can make a difference, but a travel ban by itself is a bit like a football play where the left side of the offensive line blocked well, but the right side stood around like topiary as the QB got sacked. And we have people saying "look, we imposed a travel ban!" while the country is being overwhelmed because all of the other things that were done poorly.
BC