[akiddoc]

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.aba9757

Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

More "sparks" from travel make not a lick of a difference if there is already a flame going on (community transmission).  The fatal flaw was to assume that you can impose a travel ban and that alone can take care of anything.  A travel ban in conjunction with other significant measures to reduce transmission (as was undertaken in Taiwan and South Korea) can make a difference, but a travel ban by itself is a bit like a football play where the left side of the offensive line blocked well, but the right side stood around like topiary as the QB got sacked.  And we have people saying "look, we imposed a travel ban!" while the country is being overwhelmed because all of the other things that were done poorly.

BC

I agree. Saying "but the travel ban" is a bit like saying "but what about Hillary." Doesn't have much to do with transmission. What we needed was decisive, uniform social isolation. I emailed the governor's office 2 weeks prior to his going all in saying it needed to happen immediately. Guess he didn't believe me....

[akiddoc]

https://science.sciencemag.org/content/e...ce.aba9757

Modeling results also indicate that sustained 90% travel restrictions to and from Mainland China only modestly affect the epidemic trajectory unless combined with a 50% or higher reduction of transmission in the community.

More "sparks" from travel make not a lick of a difference if there is already a flame going on (community transmission).  The fatal flaw was to assume that you can impose a travel ban and that alone can take care of anything.  A travel ban in conjunction with other significant measures to reduce transmission (as was undertaken in Taiwan and South Korea) can make a difference, but a travel ban by itself is a bit like a football play where the left side of the offensive line blocked well, but the right side stood around like topiary as the QB got sacked.  And we have people saying "look, we imposed a travel ban!" while the country is being overwhelmed because all of the other things that were done poorly.

BC

I agree. Saying "but the travel ban" is a bit like saying "but what about Hillary." Doesn't have much to do with transmission. What we needed was decisive, uniform social isolation. I emailed the governor's office 2 weeks prior to his going all in saying it needed to happen immediately. Guess he didn't believe me....