[BostonCard]

I’m open to all possibilities but skeptical.

First, we have two prior coronaviruses that have gone from animal to human without requiring the presence of a virology lab.

Second, while the CCP lies and certainly would want to hide things, transmission dynamics are generally simple.  If you look at news reports such as this one from the WSJ, (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-it-all-...1583508932), you can find the name of the hospital that was treating most of the early cases, and it’s a fairly nondescript facility about 22 km (15 miles) from the virology lab and across the Yangtze River.  There are many hospitals closer to the virology lab, including a large academic center. The hospital also happens to be about 3 miles from the Huanan seafood market.  Obviously there are many scenarios where patient zero is in the lab but the first outbreak occurs 10 miles away (people commute, for example, and the distances are hardly extraordinary), but the most parsimonious explanation is that the first person to become infected was close to the hospitals that saw the first few cases.

Occam’s razor probably applies here. You don’t need to invoke a virology lab and a cover-up to get a coronavirus jumping from bat to person.  But skepticism aside, one cannot completely discount the theory.

Now that being said, as others noted in the other thread that raised this theory, does it matter?  We know that the CCP is corrupt and was slow to recognize the virus and stop its spread. We also know that the American response has been lacking, and while we do not get to hold China’s leaders accountable for their failures, we do get to hold our own leaders accountable.

BC

[BostonCard]

I’m open to all possibilities but skeptical.

First, we have two prior coronaviruses that have gone from animal to human without requiring the presence of a virology lab.

Second, while the CCP lies and certainly would want to hide things, transmission dynamics are generally simple.  If you look at news reports such as this one from the WSJ, (https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-it-all-...1583508932), you can find the name of the hospital that was treating most of the early cases, and it’s a fairly nondescript facility about 22 km (15 miles) from the virology lab and across the Yangtze River.  There are many hospitals closer to the virology lab, including a large academic center. The hospital also happens to be about 3 miles from the Huanan seafood market.  Obviously there are many scenarios where patient zero is in the lab but the first outbreak occurs 10 miles away (people commute, for example, and the distances are hardly extraordinary), but the most parsimonious explanation is that the first person to become infected was close to the hospitals that saw the first few cases.

Occam’s razor probably applies here. You don’t need to invoke a virology lab and a cover-up to get a coronavirus jumping from bat to person.  But skepticism aside, one cannot completely discount the theory.

Now that being said, as others noted in the other thread that raised this theory, does it matter?  We know that the CCP is corrupt and was slow to recognize the virus and stop its spread. We also know that the American response has been lacking, and while we do not get to hold China’s leaders accountable for their failures, we do get to hold our own leaders accountable.

BC