04-16-2020, 11:08 AM
Seems way too early to predict the death of in-person restaurants. I think there is always going to be underlying human demand for someone to make food for them, either to save time/effort or to try dishes you don't have the knowledge or skill to make yourself. I also believe that humans are social creatures and have an inherent need to gather. So in the long term I think the business model is solid. I would also assume that the cost of doing business will go down to some offsetting degree (lower lease rates, maybe labor), although I'm sure there are many second- and third-order economic effects here that are hard to predict.
In the short run, demand is down. Very acutely right now due to shelter-in-place, but even if things start opening, as many have pointed out there will be hesitation to resume gathering, and also people will have less discretionary income. I don't think we know yet how much hesitation and how long it lasts, because we don't really know the true fatality rate yet. I think it makes a big difference if it is 1% or 0.1% in terms of how the populace will react. Other currently unknown factors include whether we find a vaccine, and whether we can build herd immunity.
In the short run, demand is down. Very acutely right now due to shelter-in-place, but even if things start opening, as many have pointed out there will be hesitation to resume gathering, and also people will have less discretionary income. I don't think we know yet how much hesitation and how long it lasts, because we don't really know the true fatality rate yet. I think it makes a big difference if it is 1% or 0.1% in terms of how the populace will react. Other currently unknown factors include whether we find a vaccine, and whether we can build herd immunity.