[Genuine Realist]

Here's a paper (still in preprint and thus not yet peer-reviewed) showing the reduction of R(E) in Washington, Northern and Southern California coincident with the imposition of shelter in place.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...20062943v1

We estimated RE was 1.43 (1.17-1.73), 2.09 (1.63-2.69), and 1.47 (0.07-2.59) in Northern California, Southern California, and Washington, respectively, for infections acquired March 1, 2020. RE declined to 0.98 (0.76-1.27), 0.89 (0.74-1.06), and 0.92 (0.05-1.55) respectively, for infections acquired March 20, 2020.

Conclusions: We identify high probability of ICU admission, long durations of stay, and considerable mortality risk among hospitalized COVID-19 cases in the western United States. Reductions in RE have occurred in conjunction with implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Obviously, you cannot prove causality here, but I'd also like to point out that RE in Washington and Northern California was higher than Southern California at the beginning of March, which is noteworthy given that Washington and Northern California was quicker to implement social distancing measures at that time.

BC

I'll bite. What is RE?

[Genuine Realist]

Here's a paper (still in preprint and thus not yet peer-reviewed) showing the reduction of R(E) in Washington, Northern and Southern California coincident with the imposition of shelter in place.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...20062943v1

We estimated RE was 1.43 (1.17-1.73), 2.09 (1.63-2.69), and 1.47 (0.07-2.59) in Northern California, Southern California, and Washington, respectively, for infections acquired March 1, 2020. RE declined to 0.98 (0.76-1.27), 0.89 (0.74-1.06), and 0.92 (0.05-1.55) respectively, for infections acquired March 20, 2020.

Conclusions: We identify high probability of ICU admission, long durations of stay, and considerable mortality risk among hospitalized COVID-19 cases in the western United States. Reductions in RE have occurred in conjunction with implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Obviously, you cannot prove causality here, but I'd also like to point out that RE in Washington and Northern California was higher than Southern California at the beginning of March, which is noteworthy given that Washington and Northern California was quicker to implement social distancing measures at that time.

BC

I'll bite. What is RE?