[dabigv13]

Here's a paper (still in preprint and thus not yet peer-reviewed) showing the reduction of R(E) in Washington, Northern and Southern California coincident with the imposition of shelter in place.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...20062943v1

We estimated RE was 1.43 (1.17-1.73), 2.09 (1.63-2.69), and 1.47 (0.07-2.59) in Northern California, Southern California, and Washington, respectively, for infections acquired March 1, 2020. RE declined to 0.98 (0.76-1.27), 0.89 (0.74-1.06), and 0.92 (0.05-1.55) respectively, for infections acquired March 20, 2020.

Conclusions: We identify high probability of ICU admission, long durations of stay, and considerable mortality risk among hospitalized COVID-19 cases in the western United States. Reductions in RE have occurred in conjunction with implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Obviously, you cannot prove causality here, but I'd also like to point out that RE in Washington and Northern California was higher than Southern California at the beginning of March, which is noteworthy given that Washington and Northern California was quicker to implement social distancing measures at that time.

BC

Think you have that backwards BC. Was higher in Socal early March, but lower now.

These numbers have likely declined even further since the numbers cited here. We are starting to see actual drops in hospitalizations, ICUs, and vents after a steady plateau, across Southern California. Steeper drop than I would've thought too, though only been a couple days so too early to feel too good about it.

Good news is social distancing works. But it takes a month just to start getting past worst of the peak, we'll see how long it takes to get back down to zero.

[dabigv13]

Here's a paper (still in preprint and thus not yet peer-reviewed) showing the reduction of R(E) in Washington, Northern and Southern California coincident with the imposition of shelter in place.

https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/...20062943v1

We estimated RE was 1.43 (1.17-1.73), 2.09 (1.63-2.69), and 1.47 (0.07-2.59) in Northern California, Southern California, and Washington, respectively, for infections acquired March 1, 2020. RE declined to 0.98 (0.76-1.27), 0.89 (0.74-1.06), and 0.92 (0.05-1.55) respectively, for infections acquired March 20, 2020.

Conclusions: We identify high probability of ICU admission, long durations of stay, and considerable mortality risk among hospitalized COVID-19 cases in the western United States. Reductions in RE have occurred in conjunction with implementation of non-pharmaceutical interventions.

Obviously, you cannot prove causality here, but I'd also like to point out that RE in Washington and Northern California was higher than Southern California at the beginning of March, which is noteworthy given that Washington and Northern California was quicker to implement social distancing measures at that time.

BC

Think you have that backwards BC. Was higher in Socal early March, but lower now.

These numbers have likely declined even further since the numbers cited here. We are starting to see actual drops in hospitalizations, ICUs, and vents after a steady plateau, across Southern California. Steeper drop than I would've thought too, though only been a couple days so too early to feel too good about it.

Good news is social distancing works. But it takes a month just to start getting past worst of the peak, we'll see how long it takes to get back down to zero.