[Genuine Realist]

You can all rest easy.  The avalanche of job losses will be blamed on Trump, and he'll be voted out.  President Joe Biden is assured in just 6.5 short months:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/...sses-mount

POTUS45 I believe has a ready made excuse for all negative information - POTUS44
When anything bad happens it is always POTUS44's fault.

President Trump's approval rating in late April is essentially where it has been throughout his entire term, so I don't think COVID19 will be the deciding factor in this election.

I'm nearly always wrong, but:

1. I think Trump loses on his incredibly obnoxious personality. Biden was running on the decency ticket, and has my vote for that reason. HOWEVER . . .

2.  I don't think the public is going Left after all this. If the experience of WWI and WWII is any guide, there is going to be a stampede back to normalcy, though normalcy will be revised. That likely helps the GOP because of all the Leftish discussion during the debates. Also, the obstruction of necessary basic relief will not be forgotten.

3. if the job loss related to some policy decisions of the Administration, it would be fatal. But it doesn't. It's a response to a national emergency, almost akin to an invasion from outer space - that strange and unprecedented. More than that, political correctness - incredibly - is beginning to harden around Blue support for a lockdown of indefinite duration, Red more immediate reopening. These should be nuanced decisions, but the media is no longer capable of that (if it ever was). The public trusts the GOP more with the economy, and it's possible the Democrats will end up on the side of endless lockdown. That's obviously very good for Trump. 

4. The Democrats are wasting their time trying to pin responsibility for this on Trump. They have their own baggage. I've posted a couple of lines on this. But they will waste their time that way. That's also helpful to Trump.

5. I believe that UBI will be on the table. That sounds Democratic, but actually touches values of both parties. I also think we will begin discussing taxing wealth more effectively than we do now. As a surtax to the income tax, it's a disaster. As a replacement for the income tax, it's an idea the time of which should have come a decade ago. (The link is to a blog I conduct on the subject.)

But I don't think any of the substantive factors matter that much. I believe Trump will lose because he's a narcissistic boor, and the public is thoroughly sick of him.

[Genuine Realist]

You can all rest easy.  The avalanche of job losses will be blamed on Trump, and he'll be voted out.  President Joe Biden is assured in just 6.5 short months:

https://www.washingtonexaminer.com/news/...sses-mount

POTUS45 I believe has a ready made excuse for all negative information - POTUS44
When anything bad happens it is always POTUS44's fault.

President Trump's approval rating in late April is essentially where it has been throughout his entire term, so I don't think COVID19 will be the deciding factor in this election.

I'm nearly always wrong, but:

1. I think Trump loses on his incredibly obnoxious personality. Biden was running on the decency ticket, and has my vote for that reason. HOWEVER . . .

2.  I don't think the public is going Left after all this. If the experience of WWI and WWII is any guide, there is going to be a stampede back to normalcy, though normalcy will be revised. That likely helps the GOP because of all the Leftish discussion during the debates. Also, the obstruction of necessary basic relief will not be forgotten.

3. if the job loss related to some policy decisions of the Administration, it would be fatal. But it doesn't. It's a response to a national emergency, almost akin to an invasion from outer space - that strange and unprecedented. More than that, political correctness - incredibly - is beginning to harden around Blue support for a lockdown of indefinite duration, Red more immediate reopening. These should be nuanced decisions, but the media is no longer capable of that (if it ever was). The public trusts the GOP more with the economy, and it's possible the Democrats will end up on the side of endless lockdown. That's obviously very good for Trump. 

4. The Democrats are wasting their time trying to pin responsibility for this on Trump. They have their own baggage. I've posted a couple of lines on this. But they will waste their time that way. That's also helpful to Trump.

5. I believe that UBI will be on the table. That sounds Democratic, but actually touches values of both parties. I also think we will begin discussing taxing wealth more effectively than we do now. As a surtax to the income tax, it's a disaster. As a replacement for the income tax, it's an idea the time of which should have come a decade ago. (The link is to a blog I conduct on the subject.)

But I don't think any of the substantive factors matter that much. I believe Trump will lose because he's a narcissistic boor, and the public is thoroughly sick of him.