[M T]

FWIW - It really is LA county more than the other SoCal counties.   LA county has most of the things that tend to fuel community spread as you noted.

The reality has been that California has flattened the curve.  Per that strategy we should not expect the CA curve to drop as quickly as the NY or Louisiana experience.   I can only imagine that in CA we will see new hospitalizations and potentially fatalities near the current daily rates for a few months.

San Diego County:  The two largest new cases reported in a single day came this week.  After 15 days of less than 100 new cases:
4/20-4/24: 109, 57, 152, 183, 117
Potentially that could come from exposure at family events or church on Easter.
OR it could be more testing: They reported that the 183 was under 6% of the tests, while the overall average has been 6.8% in San Diego County.

Orange County:  The largest new cases reported in a single day was April 24 of 124 (previous high was 104).
(124 was 10.3% of the day's tests; average 8.5%)

Los Angeles County:  The cases COUNTED in the past week have been more than double the previous week, but that seems to be because of a backlog of results being posted**.  On two days they gave the actual daily counts, and then quit doing it.
Apr 14: 670, 472, 399, 567, 642, 334, 4/20: 1491** 293, 1400** 625, 1318**, 1081**, 1035**, 607

Since LA County's stats are garbaged, all we can say is that San Diego and Orange Counties have spiked recently.  L.A. County may or may not have spiked (as we don't have the proper numbers this week, or for some period before this week).

[M T]

FWIW - It really is LA county more than the other SoCal counties.   LA county has most of the things that tend to fuel community spread as you noted.

The reality has been that California has flattened the curve.  Per that strategy we should not expect the CA curve to drop as quickly as the NY or Louisiana experience.   I can only imagine that in CA we will see new hospitalizations and potentially fatalities near the current daily rates for a few months.

San Diego County:  The two largest new cases reported in a single day came this week.  After 15 days of less than 100 new cases:
4/20-4/24: 109, 57, 152, 183, 117
Potentially that could come from exposure at family events or church on Easter.
OR it could be more testing: They reported that the 183 was under 6% of the tests, while the overall average has been 6.8% in San Diego County.

Orange County:  The largest new cases reported in a single day was April 24 of 124 (previous high was 104).
(124 was 10.3% of the day's tests; average 8.5%)

Los Angeles County:  The cases COUNTED in the past week have been more than double the previous week, but that seems to be because of a backlog of results being posted**.  On two days they gave the actual daily counts, and then quit doing it.
Apr 14: 670, 472, 399, 567, 642, 334, 4/20: 1491** 293, 1400** 625, 1318**, 1081**, 1035**, 607

Since LA County's stats are garbaged, all we can say is that San Diego and Orange Counties have spiked recently.  L.A. County may or may not have spiked (as we don't have the proper numbers this week, or for some period before this week).