Our annual "looking ahead" thread.
Of course, first we have to come to grips with the possibility that there might not be any basketball, or it might be delayed, or it might be played in empty gyms.
But for now I'll get us started on the assumption that they actually play. Here are my observations:
1) There won't be a chance to install a new offense, and the freshmen won't be able to contribute right away. I imagine Covid is going to crimp preparation in multiple ways. It takes freshmen a lot of time to acclimate to college ball, and the epidemic will probably shorten any prep time, or the season, or both. Teams that don't need a lot of prep to learn intricate offenses or defenses will do better at the start of the season than we will, for that reason. So it could be a rough start for us.
2) To start the season the post play will be even more by committee than it was last year. Dodson, Jerome, Prechtel, Belibi, and Brink will all get rotated in and out of the 5 and 4. I feel like Charlie Brown getting ready to kick the ball when I consider Dodson. Every year I think the next will be her breakout. She showed flashes after she came back last year that she was on track, and her defense is excellent, so she will get time. As I said, I doubt that Brink will adjust quickly but will get more time as the year goes on. Prechtel and Belibi will probably start right where they left off--with inconsistent performances but steadily improving. I don't think anyone knows which of those 5 will get the lion's share of the minutes.
3) Jones, Lexie, and Williams are going to start and get most of the minutes in key games. Those three seem settled to me. Lacey, Jump, Wilson and Brown are our depth at guard. Van Gytenbeek and Nnopu will of course get time early in the season to see how quickly they adjust, but I just don't expect the freshmen to be ready this year. Lacy, Jump, Wilson, and Brown are all four good players--each with different skills. Can Brown and Wilson and Lacey improve on offense? Can Jump improve on defense? It will be fun to watch them develop.
4) I'm not convinced that the Princeton is the best offense for a team with one or two star offensive players. It is better when all five are equally talented at both finishing and shooting, and that probably won't be the case. But I don't see that it is feasibly to revise the offense over this summer. But it can evolve. I would fully expect Jones to become an even more important scorer for us. She needs to practice her jump shooting from a distance, however, so defenses can't just sag off of her. It would be great if Lexie could put on some muscle mass and start attacking in the paint a bit more, generating free throws with contact. Kiana just needs to keep being Kiana--she really does not have much to improve, although I am sure that Tara will find something.
So how will we do this year if we have a full season (unlikely.)
This is the first year in a long while where I think we are favored to win the Pac 12. Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon will be difficult games, and the way the schedule is put together could tilt it a little more toward us or against us. But if Haley continues to develop and we steer clear of more injuries, I think Tara can get it done against those three teams. We could drop away games against them, but I am pretty confident in this group.
Looking beyond the Pac 12, I think we make a deep run in the NCAAs. I believe we ought to be a final four team this year.
Best case scenario: We stay mostly injury free. Haley Jones develops into an offensive star, our bigs settle into a productive rotation that works on both ends of the court, Lexie starts looking like the second coming of McPhee, and Wilson, Brown and Van Gytenbeek prove to be effective point guards that can keep Williams from wearing out. This is Tara's third natty.
Worst case scenario: Jones comes back but is hampered by lingering effects of her injury. None of the bigs progresses any further than they did last year--we have already seen all they have to give. The lack of summer and practice keep any of the freshmen from being ready to play. The offense depends too heavily on Lexie and Williams. A resurgent Oregon and Arizona handle us and we sink to third in the Pac 12, and go on to lose in the elite eight.
Of course, first we have to come to grips with the possibility that there might not be any basketball, or it might be delayed, or it might be played in empty gyms.
But for now I'll get us started on the assumption that they actually play. Here are my observations:
1) There won't be a chance to install a new offense, and the freshmen won't be able to contribute right away. I imagine Covid is going to crimp preparation in multiple ways. It takes freshmen a lot of time to acclimate to college ball, and the epidemic will probably shorten any prep time, or the season, or both. Teams that don't need a lot of prep to learn intricate offenses or defenses will do better at the start of the season than we will, for that reason. So it could be a rough start for us.
2) To start the season the post play will be even more by committee than it was last year. Dodson, Jerome, Prechtel, Belibi, and Brink will all get rotated in and out of the 5 and 4. I feel like Charlie Brown getting ready to kick the ball when I consider Dodson. Every year I think the next will be her breakout. She showed flashes after she came back last year that she was on track, and her defense is excellent, so she will get time. As I said, I doubt that Brink will adjust quickly but will get more time as the year goes on. Prechtel and Belibi will probably start right where they left off--with inconsistent performances but steadily improving. I don't think anyone knows which of those 5 will get the lion's share of the minutes.
3) Jones, Lexie, and Williams are going to start and get most of the minutes in key games. Those three seem settled to me. Lacey, Jump, Wilson and Brown are our depth at guard. Van Gytenbeek and Nnopu will of course get time early in the season to see how quickly they adjust, but I just don't expect the freshmen to be ready this year. Lacy, Jump, Wilson, and Brown are all four good players--each with different skills. Can Brown and Wilson and Lacey improve on offense? Can Jump improve on defense? It will be fun to watch them develop.
4) I'm not convinced that the Princeton is the best offense for a team with one or two star offensive players. It is better when all five are equally talented at both finishing and shooting, and that probably won't be the case. But I don't see that it is feasibly to revise the offense over this summer. But it can evolve. I would fully expect Jones to become an even more important scorer for us. She needs to practice her jump shooting from a distance, however, so defenses can't just sag off of her. It would be great if Lexie could put on some muscle mass and start attacking in the paint a bit more, generating free throws with contact. Kiana just needs to keep being Kiana--she really does not have much to improve, although I am sure that Tara will find something.
So how will we do this year if we have a full season (unlikely.)
This is the first year in a long while where I think we are favored to win the Pac 12. Arizona, UCLA, and Oregon will be difficult games, and the way the schedule is put together could tilt it a little more toward us or against us. But if Haley continues to develop and we steer clear of more injuries, I think Tara can get it done against those three teams. We could drop away games against them, but I am pretty confident in this group.
Looking beyond the Pac 12, I think we make a deep run in the NCAAs. I believe we ought to be a final four team this year.
Best case scenario: We stay mostly injury free. Haley Jones develops into an offensive star, our bigs settle into a productive rotation that works on both ends of the court, Lexie starts looking like the second coming of McPhee, and Wilson, Brown and Van Gytenbeek prove to be effective point guards that can keep Williams from wearing out. This is Tara's third natty.
Worst case scenario: Jones comes back but is hampered by lingering effects of her injury. None of the bigs progresses any further than they did last year--we have already seen all they have to give. The lack of summer and practice keep any of the freshmen from being ready to play. The offense depends too heavily on Lexie and Williams. A resurgent Oregon and Arizona handle us and we sink to third in the Pac 12, and go on to lose in the elite eight.