[Farm93]

Tomorrow morning at 8:30 EST, the initial unemployment claims will be released.  Current prediction is 3 million, raising to 33 million the number of people who have lost their jobs in the last seven weeks during the pandemic.  That means the 20% barrier has been breached.  20.2% of the workforce is receiving (hopefully) an unemployment check and (hopefully) a stimulus check, at least until August.

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-ini...2005061422

20 million lost jobs in a month.  33 million lost jobs in two months.  Added to the original 3.4% unemployment rate, we're somewhere between a 23% and 24% unemployment rate.  It took us seven weeks to reach a level of unemployment that wasn't seen in the Great Depression for more than three years.  Not until December, 1932 did American hit a 23.6% unemployment rate.

https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-...ar-3305506

As a Stanford alum I was a touch uneasy regarding Hoover's legacy with unemployment and the Great Depression.   Now I will always be able to say, "Hey at least it was not as bad what happened during the Trump administration"
Thank you - President Trump

Seriously though, for far too many families the stimulus check and unemployment insurance will not be enough.   It will reduce the debt they need to take on in the short-term, but for many there will be bankruptcies and evictions on the horizon.

The pandemic is going to create a massive divide as we move forward.

There will be people that worked from home and will have a mountain of savings as they couldn't spend their income on items, restaurants, travel, etc.  They could even enjoy a rather meaningful wealth effect from the months of shelter in place restrictions for years.

Then there will be a group of people that worked in the service sector or had jobs that provided supplies for the service sector that were furloughed for months.   With many in those sectors losing their jobs in 2020.   For many their service sector jobs were never lucrative, but the unemployment rates in those sectors could suppress salaries for years.  That group will be struggling with negative credit ratings and heaps of debt in 2021, and relatively soft career prospects for multiple years.

The dichotomy may significantly alter the economy and politics for years in the USA and could cause more dramatic geopolitical turmoil around the world.

[Farm93]

Tomorrow morning at 8:30 EST, the initial unemployment claims will be released.  Current prediction is 3 million, raising to 33 million the number of people who have lost their jobs in the last seven weeks during the pandemic.  That means the 20% barrier has been breached.  20.2% of the workforce is receiving (hopefully) an unemployment check and (hopefully) a stimulus check, at least until August.

https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/us-ini...2005061422

20 million lost jobs in a month.  33 million lost jobs in two months.  Added to the original 3.4% unemployment rate, we're somewhere between a 23% and 24% unemployment rate.  It took us seven weeks to reach a level of unemployment that wasn't seen in the Great Depression for more than three years.  Not until December, 1932 did American hit a 23.6% unemployment rate.

https://www.thebalance.com/unemployment-...ar-3305506

As a Stanford alum I was a touch uneasy regarding Hoover's legacy with unemployment and the Great Depression.   Now I will always be able to say, "Hey at least it was not as bad what happened during the Trump administration"
Thank you - President Trump

Seriously though, for far too many families the stimulus check and unemployment insurance will not be enough.   It will reduce the debt they need to take on in the short-term, but for many there will be bankruptcies and evictions on the horizon.

The pandemic is going to create a massive divide as we move forward.

There will be people that worked from home and will have a mountain of savings as they couldn't spend their income on items, restaurants, travel, etc.  They could even enjoy a rather meaningful wealth effect from the months of shelter in place restrictions for years.

Then there will be a group of people that worked in the service sector or had jobs that provided supplies for the service sector that were furloughed for months.   With many in those sectors losing their jobs in 2020.   For many their service sector jobs were never lucrative, but the unemployment rates in those sectors could suppress salaries for years.  That group will be struggling with negative credit ratings and heaps of debt in 2021, and relatively soft career prospects for multiple years.

The dichotomy may significantly alter the economy and politics for years in the USA and could cause more dramatic geopolitical turmoil around the world.