[OutsiderFan]

Those driving up equity values are like fleas who don't yet realize the market dog is dead.

This is a fact. Main Street businesses have no money to spend.  There is this - insane - notion that we'll all be back to normal soon, so all these companies will be riding high again. What these folks don't realize is pre-pandemic economic activity is not returning for a long time.  

I've used very simple data to come to this conclusion:
- Open Table reservations were down 50% the week before any government shutdowns in March
- Surveys have shown 70% of people don't want to attend live sports events until there is a vaccine
- Other surveys have shown heavy support for stay at home orders
 
This is short piece is instructive:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/market-i...roach.html

[OutsiderFan]

Those driving up equity values are like fleas who don't yet realize the market dog is dead.

This is a fact. Main Street businesses have no money to spend.  There is this - insane - notion that we'll all be back to normal soon, so all these companies will be riding high again. What these folks don't realize is pre-pandemic economic activity is not returning for a long time.  

I've used very simple data to come to this conclusion:
- Open Table reservations were down 50% the week before any government shutdowns in March
- Surveys have shown 70% of people don't want to attend live sports events until there is a vaccine
- Other surveys have shown heavy support for stay at home orders
 
This is short piece is instructive:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/market-i...roach.html