[BostonCard]

Those driving up equity values are like fleas who don't yet realize the market dog is dead.

This is a fact. Main Street businesses have no money to spend.  There is this - insane - notion that we'll all be back to normal soon, so all these companies will be riding high again. What these folks don't realize is pre-pandemic economic activity is not returning for a long time.  

I've used very simple data to come to this conclusion:
- Open Table reservations were down 50% the week before any government shutdowns in March
- Surveys have shown 70% of people don't want to attend live sports events until there is a vaccine
- Other surveys have shown heavy support for stay at home orders
 
This is short piece is instructive:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/market-i...roach.html

The issue is that with the exception of fast food joints, most restaurants are not public companies in the stock markets.  Ditto major sports teams.  Obviously, reductions in the above will affect suppliers and upmarket producers, but the companies that are going to be most affected by COVID-19, apart from the travel industry, are by and large not publicly traded.

BC

[BostonCard]

Those driving up equity values are like fleas who don't yet realize the market dog is dead.

This is a fact. Main Street businesses have no money to spend.  There is this - insane - notion that we'll all be back to normal soon, so all these companies will be riding high again. What these folks don't realize is pre-pandemic economic activity is not returning for a long time.  

I've used very simple data to come to this conclusion:
- Open Table reservations were down 50% the week before any government shutdowns in March
- Surveys have shown 70% of people don't want to attend live sports events until there is a vaccine
- Other surveys have shown heavy support for stay at home orders
 
This is short piece is instructive:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/05/06/market-i...roach.html

The issue is that with the exception of fast food joints, most restaurants are not public companies in the stock markets.  Ditto major sports teams.  Obviously, reductions in the above will affect suppliers and upmarket producers, but the companies that are going to be most affected by COVID-19, apart from the travel industry, are by and large not publicly traded.

BC