[Mick]

The trillions the Fed and Congress created are key to the market rise.   Not only is there a lot of new money floating around, but the ease also demonstrates more will likely be created if needed.   That money might not get to those most in need, but it should give the economy a boost.  

The unemployment claims and unemployment rate are likely to miss the impact to those in the gig economy.   AirBNB hosts and Uber/Lyft drivers are not really unemployed, but their income has to be very close to $0 each week.

I still think there will be deflation rather than inflation.  Consumers have no money, and will have no jobs, not really.  I strongly suspect that once businesses figure out how profitably they can run after driving costs out, they'll continue to do so.  We will have furloughed 20% of our staff (24% of my team, including five more tomorrow), and these are people that I desperately need.  The remainder of my team is desperate, they want to keep their jobs.  Most of us work after hours, and now Saturdays and Sundays to handle the flood of sales/BD/marketing demand.

The short-sightedness of this policy won't be felt for a while, which will ease its permanence.  I realize that I only have insights into my own firm, but I can't help but feel that the pandemic will cement these job losses, now at 34 million+ and climbing.  This past week's RIFs were higher than the estimates, and the prior week's RIFs had to be adjusted upward.  And speaking of marketing, at this point it doesn't matter whether America goes back to work or not -- the long term damage has been done.  All the activities that we might have engaged in, we will no longer have in 2020 and i wouldn't be surprised if that extends to 2021.  The media and medical communities will have achieved their goals, the infection curve will be flat and America's economy will be flatter.  Well -- not flatter, the economy is in nosedive right now, and will continue to do so for quite a while.

Fastest Economic Deterioration Ever Recorded:
https://news.bitcoin.com/us-manufacturing-crisis/

Bigger Than Expected Nosedive In U.S. Home Sales
https://www.rttnews.com/list/us-economic-news.aspx

CBO Thinks American Economy Will Shrink 40% this Quarter (annualized, four times the size of the worst quarterly contraction on record!)
https://local12.com/news/coronavirus/us-...rus-struck

U.K. Economy Worst Since 1706
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/07/economy/u...index.html

[Mick]

The trillions the Fed and Congress created are key to the market rise.   Not only is there a lot of new money floating around, but the ease also demonstrates more will likely be created if needed.   That money might not get to those most in need, but it should give the economy a boost.  

The unemployment claims and unemployment rate are likely to miss the impact to those in the gig economy.   AirBNB hosts and Uber/Lyft drivers are not really unemployed, but their income has to be very close to $0 each week.

I still think there will be deflation rather than inflation.  Consumers have no money, and will have no jobs, not really.  I strongly suspect that once businesses figure out how profitably they can run after driving costs out, they'll continue to do so.  We will have furloughed 20% of our staff (24% of my team, including five more tomorrow), and these are people that I desperately need.  The remainder of my team is desperate, they want to keep their jobs.  Most of us work after hours, and now Saturdays and Sundays to handle the flood of sales/BD/marketing demand.

The short-sightedness of this policy won't be felt for a while, which will ease its permanence.  I realize that I only have insights into my own firm, but I can't help but feel that the pandemic will cement these job losses, now at 34 million+ and climbing.  This past week's RIFs were higher than the estimates, and the prior week's RIFs had to be adjusted upward.  And speaking of marketing, at this point it doesn't matter whether America goes back to work or not -- the long term damage has been done.  All the activities that we might have engaged in, we will no longer have in 2020 and i wouldn't be surprised if that extends to 2021.  The media and medical communities will have achieved their goals, the infection curve will be flat and America's economy will be flatter.  Well -- not flatter, the economy is in nosedive right now, and will continue to do so for quite a while.

Fastest Economic Deterioration Ever Recorded:
https://news.bitcoin.com/us-manufacturing-crisis/

Bigger Than Expected Nosedive In U.S. Home Sales
https://www.rttnews.com/list/us-economic-news.aspx

CBO Thinks American Economy Will Shrink 40% this Quarter (annualized, four times the size of the worst quarterly contraction on record!)
https://local12.com/news/coronavirus/us-...rus-struck

U.K. Economy Worst Since 1706
https://www.cnn.com/2020/05/07/economy/u...index.html