05-08-2020, 10:49 AM
Yes, I agree with you that the number of deaths due to COVID-19 are fewer than the total number of excess deaths (derived by comparing the number of deaths observed from all causes from March to May 2020 to the historical average). Where I disagree is that this proves that the number of COVID-19 deaths in the US are understated (at least by a significant margin).
Going back to the original post, the question is whether our official count of ~75,000 deaths due to COVID-19 is accurate. Right wing outlets seem to believe that it is an overcount, while on the left there seems to be a belief that the numbers are undercounted, citing the discrepancy between the number of excess deaths and the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 as evidence. I think that is probably true in places like Bergamo, where a lot of people were dying at home without being tested and probably did have COVID-19, but less likely to be true in New York, which has included probable cases (including people dying at home without ever being tested) in their count. The discrepancy between excess deaths and COVID-19 definite and probable cases is fairly small (15%), and when you consider that some excess deaths were due to non-COVID-related causes (like heart attacks) that were nonetheless not treated because of the pandemic or delays in seeking medical care, the number of deaths due to COVID-19 is probably broadly accurate. I don't think it would be appropriate to consider a death due to a heart attack to be COVID-related just because the pandemic made caring for the heart attack more difficult.
BC
Going back to the original post, the question is whether our official count of ~75,000 deaths due to COVID-19 is accurate. Right wing outlets seem to believe that it is an overcount, while on the left there seems to be a belief that the numbers are undercounted, citing the discrepancy between the number of excess deaths and the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19 as evidence. I think that is probably true in places like Bergamo, where a lot of people were dying at home without being tested and probably did have COVID-19, but less likely to be true in New York, which has included probable cases (including people dying at home without ever being tested) in their count. The discrepancy between excess deaths and COVID-19 definite and probable cases is fairly small (15%), and when you consider that some excess deaths were due to non-COVID-related causes (like heart attacks) that were nonetheless not treated because of the pandemic or delays in seeking medical care, the number of deaths due to COVID-19 is probably broadly accurate. I don't think it would be appropriate to consider a death due to a heart attack to be COVID-related just because the pandemic made caring for the heart attack more difficult.
BC